Green Book Archive
March 2026
When Bombs Fly, Don’t Play Hero
When bombs fly, the reward for bravery is rarely paid on schedule. We do not think this is the time to heroically outguess geopolitics or to confuse short-term fortitude with long-term clarity.
February 2026
Small Caps Sizzle
A small-cap bounce in January is arguably the best-known of all stock market anomalies, but for much of the last decade it’s been a flop. This year, it was firing on all cylinders until the last few days of January, when the Russell 2000 surrendered about half of its gain. Nonetheless, it was the index’s best January since 2023.
January 2026
Santa Hits Snooze
No, Virginia, there wasn’t a 2025 Santa Claus rally. It came down to the final few ticks, but the last five trading days of 2025 plus the first two trading days of the new year goe in the books as a lump of coal.
December 2025
S&P 500 Goes Streaking
The index’s monthly win streak looked as dead as Disco as November progressed. Then, SPX rallied to close the month with its best five-day run since mid-May to attain a 7th consecutive monthly win. In the majority of prior cases, the index proceeded to post above average results for the next three- and six-month periods.
November 2025
The Downside Of A Two-Time Hook-Up
In late September, our Very Long Term Momentum algorithm reversed higher after being on a downward track since 2024. There have been just ten other cases of this since 1957, and it has often been a stock market trap. Not an official signal, but worth watching.
October 2025
FOMO—With A Twist
FOMO is in full gear and—unlike the meme-stock mania of 2021—it’s been underpinned by an extremely compelling storyline: The seemingly limitless possibilities of artificial intelligence.
September 2025
Late Summer Heat Wave
A Fed that’s been incapable of controlling the intensity of the flame will soon be supplying it with more oxygen in an attempt to stimulate real activity. The odds are that any new fuel on the fire will find its way into consumer prices, long before it stimulates “unit growth” in slumping sectors.
August 2025
Debauchery & Debasement
Whether or not the label "bubble" fits this market, U.S. economic risks continue to rise, while Mega Cap valuations home-in on levels seen only in 1999 and early 2000.
July 2025
Back To The Brink?
With the S&P 500 snapping back to new highs, our team revisits the bubble debate. While valuations flash warning signs, speculation and momentum tell a more measured story.
June 2025
At Least One Peak Is “In”
There’s a strong argument that the internal peak of the bull market is behind us. The Equal-Weighted S&P 1500—featured prominently in this section this month—is still down 12% from its November 25th bull market peak.
May 2025
Price Action Preempts Policy
The Leuthold Group, dated May 2025, provides an in-depth analysis of the current market conditions, offering insights into recent price movements and economic indicators. It explores the performance of various asset classes, including gold and foreign stocks, and dissects the factors influencing major market selloffs, particularly emphasizing the impact of central bank intervention and government policy, such as tariffs. The report also examines the performance of active versus passive investment strategies, suggesting that market conditions significantly influence which approach is more successful, and evaluates the current stock market internals and valuation levels, pointing to potential downside risk based on historical data.
April 2025
Bear-ing Down
The market decline will almost certainly be accompanied by a recession. For months we’ve maintained that the wealth effect had become the main support of an expansion whose list of beneficiaries had been narrowing like that of stock breadth and leadership. The administration’s draconian tariffs will deserve some blame, but it’s not partisan to underscore that the expansion was on precarious footing long before the Tariff Tantrum.
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