Green Book July 2014
The breadth of new market highs across multiple market indexes illustrates beyond a doubt that the stock market is “externally” in gear. Current conditions are cyclically bullish for equities; the math doesn’t support the “secular” bull market thesis that is becoming increasingly popular.
Energy sector is heating up and now ranks as #2 sector after four years of ranking as one of the four worst sectors.
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Featured Articles
Disciplines Remain Bullish, But...
Current conditions remain cyclically bullish for equities, however, the mathematics don’t support the “secular” bull market thesis, or those betting that stocks can be propped up by the economic expansion.
The Ten-Year Stock Market View: Are Above-Average Returns Possible?
Unfortunately, the upswing since early 2009 can be considered immature only from the perspective of its age. The math just doesn’t support the secular case.
The Public And The Professionals Square Off
Two short-term, options-based sentiment measures have just swung to levels consistent with near-term difficulty for stocks. Current reading is the most bearish combination of smart-money caution and dumb-money confidence in 10 years.
Time Cycle Composite—Mid-Year Update
Our beginning-of-the-year message—“lower your expectations and be patient” has largely been true so far this year as most equity markets tracked the historical pattern pretty closely.
A Top Down View Of REITs
Although Valuations are a headwind for the asset class, at the stock level our disciplined multi-factor model indicates best opportunities are Small/Mid Caps, and Hotel & Resort-oriented names.
Energy Rates At 4-Yr High; Bought Integrated Oil
Strength in the Energy sector has been so compelling that our two recent Energy group allocations together now make up a 10% portfolio weight, after having no Energy exposure from June 2013—April.
Electronic Payment Systems: Can Strong Performance Persist?
As a follow up to a 2012 Special Study, we examine the growth in Electronic Payment Systems. Global competition in the industry has significantly heated up, as more countries are setting up their own national payment systems, relying much less on the “big four” global giants.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Another Month, Another Milestone?
- Disciplines Remain Bullish, But...
- All Together Now!
- Market “Externals” Versus “Internals”
- The Public And The Professionals Square Off
- Confidence & Stock Prices
- Energy Sector Heating Up
- Beware Bond-Like Stocks
- Small Cap Valuation Check
- Quality Stock Rankings: Low Quality Momentum Persists
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- 10-Year Yield: 250-280 Range Intact
- Time Cycle Composite—Mid-Year Update
- Risk Aversion Index - Stayed On Higher Risk Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Current Attractive & Unattractive Groups and Highlights
- Electronic Payment Systems: Can Strong Performance Persist?
- Energy Rates At 4-Yr High; Bought Integrated Oil
- Separating Earnings And Sales Growth
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios’ Net Equity Exposure Unchanged At 65-66%
- Domestic & Global Long-Only Portfolios Outperformed By 390 And 430 Bps, Respectively In First Half
- 100% Short Portfolios: Both Domestic And Global AdvantHedge Trailed In June And Lag YTD
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
- Comic
- Grilling Season Is Upon Us
- Attack Of The Drones!!!
- Speaking Of The Amazon...
- At Random Exclusive!
- Some Of Jack Handy’s Deepest Thoughts
- No Womb At The Inn
- The Altar Boy’s Confession
- Ask The Pharmacist
Appendix
Disciplines Remain Bullish, But...
Current conditions remain cyclically bullish for equities, however, the mathematics don’t support the “secular” bull market thesis, or those betting that stocks can be propped up by the economic expansion.
The Ten-Year Stock Market View: Are Above-Average Returns Possible?
Unfortunately, the upswing since early 2009 can be considered immature only from the perspective of its age. The math just doesn’t support the secular case.
The Public And The Professionals Square Off
Two short-term, options-based sentiment measures have just swung to levels consistent with near-term difficulty for stocks. Current reading is the most bearish combination of smart-money caution and dumb-money confidence in 10 years.
Time Cycle Composite—Mid-Year Update
Our beginning-of-the-year message—“lower your expectations and be patient” has largely been true so far this year as most equity markets tracked the historical pattern pretty closely.
A Top Down View Of REITs
Although Valuations are a headwind for the asset class, at the stock level our disciplined multi-factor model indicates best opportunities are Small/Mid Caps, and Hotel & Resort-oriented names.
Energy Rates At 4-Yr High; Bought Integrated Oil
Strength in the Energy sector has been so compelling that our two recent Energy group allocations together now make up a 10% portfolio weight, after having no Energy exposure from June 2013—April.
Electronic Payment Systems: Can Strong Performance Persist?
As a follow up to a 2012 Special Study, we examine the growth in Electronic Payment Systems. Global competition in the industry has significantly heated up, as more countries are setting up their own national payment systems, relying much less on the “big four” global giants.
Stock Market
- Another Month, Another Milestone?
- Disciplines Remain Bullish, But...
- All Together Now!
- Market “Externals” Versus “Internals”
- The Public And The Professionals Square Off
- Confidence & Stock Prices
- Energy Sector Heating Up
- Beware Bond-Like Stocks
- Small Cap Valuation Check
- Quality Stock Rankings: Low Quality Momentum Persists
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- 10-Year Yield: 250-280 Range Intact
- Time Cycle Composite—Mid-Year Update
- Risk Aversion Index - Stayed On Higher Risk Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Current Attractive & Unattractive Groups and Highlights
- Electronic Payment Systems: Can Strong Performance Persist?
- Energy Rates At 4-Yr High; Bought Integrated Oil
- Separating Earnings And Sales Growth
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios’ Net Equity Exposure Unchanged At 65-66%
- Domestic & Global Long-Only Portfolios Outperformed By 390 And 430 Bps, Respectively In First Half
- 100% Short Portfolios: Both Domestic And Global AdvantHedge Trailed In June And Lag YTD
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
- Comic
- Grilling Season Is Upon Us
- Attack Of The Drones!!!
- Speaking Of The Amazon...
- At Random Exclusive!
- Some Of Jack Handy’s Deepest Thoughts
- No Womb At The Inn
- The Altar Boy’s Confession
- Ask The Pharmacist
Appendix
Perception for the Professional
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