Green Book May 2007
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Featured Articles
2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Second Half, Economy Slowing, Recession In 2008?
Expect economic expansion to slow down in the second half. A 2008 recession is a possibility.
A Closer Look At 2007 Projected Earnings Growth
Initial results for Q1 earnings look disturbing. Analyst estimates of 2007 year end earnings for stocks have been declining across all market cap tiers, with biggest declines in the Energy sector.
April Market Action
The bulls remain in command as evidenced by the fact that the broad market averages continue their ascent toward new cyclical highs (or in some cases like the DJIA and Russell 2000—new all-time highs).
Bond Investors: Forget Your Econ 101!!
We know we’re not the only ones to have noticed, but the old economic rules of thumb haven’t been working in the U.S. bond market for some time.
Bond Sentiment: Window Closing For Bulls?
Since economic fundamentals are providing little help lately, an understanding of bond sentiment has become especially helpful.
Excerpts From Our New ETF Study
An In Focus Special Research Study sent in late April provides a detailed look at the growth of the ETF industry and endeavors to organize the ETF universe into meaningful categories.
Focus On Profit Margins
While the current economic expansion has been below average in terms of growth, the profit expansion over this time frame has been explosive.
Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Slips Again In April
We view traditional open-end funds as the primary indicator of individual investor sentiment, and consider ETF demand primarily a function of professional demand. With that said, the positive $3.5 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds in April tells us that individual investors remain cautious.
Second Half 2007: Inflation Acceleration Expected
CPI inflation accelerated again in March. As we see it, the important development is that inflation has broadened out.
Sell In May: Reformulated For The Fully-Invested
While the “Sell in May” market phenomenon has become part of Wall Street lore, the sector implications of this seasonal pattern are less well-known.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold discusses the rationale for using “normalized” earnings versus 12-month earnings and how it now makes little sense to sell in May and go away…..unless you need a long vacation.
What's Working In 2007?
Factors driving the stock market obviously vary considerably over time. We isolated 10 factors to show what has been working so far in 2007. Best indicator in 2007 is low short interest, while the worst factors have been Low Price/Book Value and Low Beta.
Why Use Leuthold's Groups?
Clients who use our equity group work are well aware of the successful history of picking groups through the quantitative Group Selection Scores (GS Scores).
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- April Market Action
- A Closer Look At 2007 Projected Earnings Growth
- Excerpts From Our New ETF Study
- Why Use Leuthold's Groups?
- What's Working In 2007?
- Sell In May: Reformulated For The Fully-Invested
- Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Slips Again In April
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Bond Investors: Forget Your Econ 101!!
- 2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Second Half, Economy Slowing, Recession In 2008?
- Bond Sentiment: Window Closing For Bulls?
Inflation Watch
2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Second Half, Economy Slowing, Recession In 2008?
Expect economic expansion to slow down in the second half. A 2008 recession is a possibility.
A Closer Look At 2007 Projected Earnings Growth
Initial results for Q1 earnings look disturbing. Analyst estimates of 2007 year end earnings for stocks have been declining across all market cap tiers, with biggest declines in the Energy sector.
April Market Action
The bulls remain in command as evidenced by the fact that the broad market averages continue their ascent toward new cyclical highs (or in some cases like the DJIA and Russell 2000—new all-time highs).
Bond Investors: Forget Your Econ 101!!
We know we’re not the only ones to have noticed, but the old economic rules of thumb haven’t been working in the U.S. bond market for some time.
Bond Sentiment: Window Closing For Bulls?
Since economic fundamentals are providing little help lately, an understanding of bond sentiment has become especially helpful.
Excerpts From Our New ETF Study
An In Focus Special Research Study sent in late April provides a detailed look at the growth of the ETF industry and endeavors to organize the ETF universe into meaningful categories.
Focus On Profit Margins
While the current economic expansion has been below average in terms of growth, the profit expansion over this time frame has been explosive.
Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Slips Again In April
We view traditional open-end funds as the primary indicator of individual investor sentiment, and consider ETF demand primarily a function of professional demand. With that said, the positive $3.5 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds in April tells us that individual investors remain cautious.
Second Half 2007: Inflation Acceleration Expected
CPI inflation accelerated again in March. As we see it, the important development is that inflation has broadened out.
Sell In May: Reformulated For The Fully-Invested
While the “Sell in May” market phenomenon has become part of Wall Street lore, the sector implications of this seasonal pattern are less well-known.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold discusses the rationale for using “normalized” earnings versus 12-month earnings and how it now makes little sense to sell in May and go away…..unless you need a long vacation.
What's Working In 2007?
Factors driving the stock market obviously vary considerably over time. We isolated 10 factors to show what has been working so far in 2007. Best indicator in 2007 is low short interest, while the worst factors have been Low Price/Book Value and Low Beta.
Why Use Leuthold's Groups?
Clients who use our equity group work are well aware of the successful history of picking groups through the quantitative Group Selection Scores (GS Scores).
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- April Market Action
- A Closer Look At 2007 Projected Earnings Growth
- Excerpts From Our New ETF Study
- Why Use Leuthold's Groups?
- What's Working In 2007?
- Sell In May: Reformulated For The Fully-Invested
- Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Slips Again In April
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Bond Investors: Forget Your Econ 101!!
- 2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Second Half, Economy Slowing, Recession In 2008?
- Bond Sentiment: Window Closing For Bulls?
Inflation Watch
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