Oil
2023—A Year Of Round Trips
The S&P 500 index painted a picture of a runaway market in 2023, but for a lot of non-equity markets, 2023 was a year of round trips.
Energy: Kicking A Dog When It’s Down
With crude trading at only about half the level seen in the first few years of this expansion, there might be a tendency to view its current price as depressed. But from an inflation-adjusted perspective, today’s price sits right on top of its modern-era (post-embargo) median.
Recent Years’ Oil Price Experience Akin To 1980s’
We revisit commentary we published in 2015 regarding the late-2014 oil price crash and review why, at that time, we believed oil prices could stay at depressed levels for a longer period than most expected. Additionally, we advise avoiding two Energy sector segments: companies with high balance-sheet risk, and Energy Royalty Trusts.
Factor Performance Reverses
With the exception of Value, March was a bad month for quantitative factor performance. Every other factor category we follow underperformed, with Momentum posting its second consecutive –5% spread.
Big U.S. Banks: We Have A Motion, Is There A Second?
YTD the S&P 500 has fallen 2% while the S&P 500 Banking industry group is down over 12%—a shortfall that has the attention of value investors and contrarians seeking a chance to buy high-quality banking franchises at fire-sale prices.
Bottom-Fishing In Energy: Beware Of Bankruptcy Risks
New developments have lifted sentiment toward oil and Energy names, but we caution bottom-fishers to be mindful of risks. The fundamentals in the oil patch do not yet support strong oil prices going forward.
There’s Always A Hook...
Bear markets need a “hook”—some sort of misdirection that keeps the majority hoping. Our work suggests a primary bear market is underway, and we fear oil is this bear’s hook…but the problems run deeper than oil.
The Bullish Case: A Mental Exercise
We’ve been correctly positioned near our tactical portfolios’ equity minimums, yet we’re oddly compelled to use this month’s “Of Special Interest” section as a very public second-guessing of that move.
VLT Flashes A BUY On Oil
As expected, our VLT Momentum algorithm triggered a “low-risk” cyclical buy signal on crude oil in late October, only the 11th buy signal in the past 30 years. This algorithm was originally designed to identify low-risk entry points into the stock market, but we’ve found it useful with other assets as well.
Oil Price “Crashes” In Historical Perspective
In view of the last year’s steep decline in oil prices, Energy has been a frequent headline topic.
Declining Crude Prices Good For Emerging Markets?
The price of crude oil staged a dramatic change of fate in the past few months, and the bottom is still nowhere in sight.
A New Leg In The Commodity Decline?
For more than two years we’ve discussed the supply-side risks to commodity producers stemming from capacity built during the manic “Third Act” of last decade’s Three Act Play in commodities. Commodity-oriented equities have indeed underperformed since 2011, but to date, most pundits have laid blame squarely on the demand side.
Buy Energy Stocks
Why is right now a great time to buy Energy stocks?
Like Oil & Water: The “Correlation” Between CleanTech And Petroleum
We examine the correlation between CleanTech and Petroleum and find that, contrary to what is commonly believed, the overall correlation between oil prices and Clean Technology shares is rather weak.
Will the Disaster in the Gulf Present an Opportunity for Alternative Energy Stocks?
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, David Kurzman, manager of the “Leuthold Global Clean Technology” mutual fund provides his take on whether the Gulf oil spill will present any real opportunities for alternative energy stocks.
Point And Counterpoint: Big Oil
Client disputes Leuthold’s call for big oil to invest in alternative energy business. Read Steve’s in-depth rebuttal.
View From The North Country
Steve's commentary on the stock market's Wall of Worry, the oil patch and mining company squeeze, the abusurdity of corn to ethanol and the world's most valuable companies.
View From The North Country
Everybody sure hates the Homebuilders. However, contrarians should take note of this month’s analysis of earnings prospects, insider selling/buying, and the outlook for future housing starts. Now is not the time to be bottom fishing here. Nor is it time to be buying oil stocks.
Is Oil Overvalued Relative To Industrial Metals?
In comparison to crude oil, industrial metals are beginning to look like a real bargain.
Cautious On Oil Stocks In The Short Term
Surprised that crude oil did not soar above $70. Price of crude seems to have double topped at $70 and some correction is expected in coming months.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
