Oil

In my opinion, the U.S. stock market is entering the terminal phase of the current cyclical bull market, based on our historical studies of typical cyclical bull market duration and magnitude. To a lesser degree the same can be said for the economic expansion.

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A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2005.

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This month, Eric Bjorgen presents a unique take on stock market valuations, by determining how many barrels of oil it takes to buy one unit of the S&P 500. Based on the historical relationship, the stock market is not overvalued versus oil.

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With oil and gas prices continuing to make new highs, we thought it would be helpful to put some perspective on rising energy prices.

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Based on oil futures prices, 2005 year-end  consensus  earnings forecasts for the Integrated Oil & Gas group appear too low! These too-low forecasts imply further upside for oil shares, and, at the very least, limited downside relative to the rest of the market.

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Continue to conclude the cyclical bull market prevails but my level of conviction is down a few notches. Also, an oil message from the market and “Don’t Be Economic Girlie Men”.

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Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.

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Leuthold believes the big depressant to stock market these days is not necessarily potential for rising interest rates or higher inflation, but instead is due to the gray cloud of the Iraq situation. Good news is that U.S. may be starting to extricate itself from the Iraq quagmire, and that could be a very bullish development in June.

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Special reprint of Steve Leuthold, Byron Wien and Charley Maxwell conference call from early April.

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This oversold group has already begun recovery from early-1999 lows, but is still down 44% from 1997 high.

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With margin debt soaring, it’s past time for the Fed to boost margin requirements. Charlie Maxwell offers unique insights on the oil patch. Rapidly deteriorating U.S./China relationship could have severe implications.

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New sector activated with a focus on the major oil companies from around the world.

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Yes, we also should have bought these last month. The sector moved up another 5% in March.

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The recent improvement in the bond market is probably not the result of the politicians’ weak kneed program to deal with the deficit. Rather, it more likely stems from the lack of bad news from the Middle East and growing evidence that the economy is in a recession.

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As things heated up in the desert, the bond market swooned. Late in August, Middle East tensions eased somewhat, with the dollar and the bond market staging a rally, trimming the losses for the month. Nevertheless, bond market damage in August was still severe.

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Our diversified index of oil related stocks is now up 110% from its lows of last summer, although still 22% below its 1980 peak. However, the relative strength line is now approaching its 1980 to date downtrend line.

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We continue to believe the Japanese Oil Patch invasion will develop and the sector continues to look oversold and cheap, with most institutions significantly underweighted. Larry Jeddeloh spent part of November on the west coast, combining a research trip with some client visits. Here are his observations.

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Update on the coming Japanese Oil Patch invasion: We are now even more convinced, it is only a matter of time.…ARFF (Angry Revengeful Frequent Flyers) – You too can be a member!

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We would not be at all surprised to see the Japanese becoming quite active in acquiring foreign oil reserves and perhaps investing heavily in some major oil companies. In this section, nine major reasons are given to support this contention.

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Fiscal Responsibility Update...Who were the bad guys this year? How to make a killing in the Oil Patch and an update on Australian bond.

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