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Green Book June 1982

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Back Down on the Farm

Last issue’s feature on farmland prices and home prices seemed to generate considerable interest. At the risk of seeming excessively provincial, we will again focus on farm problems, including new Department of Agriculture land price data and the reasons why the intrinsic value of farmland may actually be depreciating.

Inflation Resurgence? Be Ahead of the Crowd

It’s time to start looking but too early to start buying. In this issue the groundwork is laid for being ahead of the crowd in timing a potential move back into the traditional inflation hedge stocks. A new conceptual stock grouping is introduced (The Inflation Resurgence? Index) and the current status of some inflation monitoring tools is reviewed. If a re-entry can be timed well, a profitable tactical move may be in store sooner than most now expect.

The Major Trend: Still a Bull

Down more than expected in May but the Major Trend Index remains decisively bullish. Early Warning Index at +10, -3, combined with sentiment and momentum work leads to a conclusion that current decline may be about over, with market rallying again later in June. Advise accumulation.

View from the North Country

The crowd is not always wrong and being contrary is not always right. However, maintaining the ability to step away from the crowd is crucial. Our once lonely positive stance toward consumer stocks seems to now be consensus, but that in itself is not reason to now abandon the thesis. It does, however, put us on guard.

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