Green Book December 1983
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Bond Market Summary
The bond market remains in our buying zone. We expect the summer lows to hold, and very soon a sharp upward move in bond prices. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-Bonds in the next 12-18 months. Maybe much lower on a secular basis.
Inside the Stock Market
The cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago looks healthy, but we are not sure the 1983 corrective phase is over. Our intermediate term timing work does not want to turn positive. On a secular basis, the stock market is probably about two-thirds of the way through the move beginning in 1974.
The Equity Model Portfolio
This appears regularly in a companion publication, but it has been a long time since we have explained how and why we do this exercise. It may be the most precise and carefully maintained model found in an institutional portfolio strategy publication. Models are not the same as actual portfolio management, but this comes close. All current holdings are detailed, classified by our current conceptual structure.
View from the North Country
The Bond Market – 25 Years Ago: In recent years investors have been conditioned to double digit long-term interest rates, and more than a few think it will always be that way. Memories on Wall Street are notoriously short…..Equity Structure Update: Quite a few changes have been made in recent months. This feature details the current conceptual structure.
What About the Oils Now?
The last of the tactical “Oil Patch Recovery” play initiated in early 1983 has been closed out. What now? We expect oil stocks to be underperformers for at least six months. $25 crude prices would not be a surprise in 1984. And on a long-term basis, we still expect oil prices to erratically decline in real dollars for the rest of the century.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Bond Market Summary
The bond market remains in our buying zone. We expect the summer lows to hold, and very soon a sharp upward move in bond prices. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-Bonds in the next 12-18 months. Maybe much lower on a secular basis.
Inside the Stock Market
The cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago looks healthy, but we are not sure the 1983 corrective phase is over. Our intermediate term timing work does not want to turn positive. On a secular basis, the stock market is probably about two-thirds of the way through the move beginning in 1974.
The Equity Model Portfolio
This appears regularly in a companion publication, but it has been a long time since we have explained how and why we do this exercise. It may be the most precise and carefully maintained model found in an institutional portfolio strategy publication. Models are not the same as actual portfolio management, but this comes close. All current holdings are detailed, classified by our current conceptual structure.
View from the North Country
The Bond Market – 25 Years Ago: In recent years investors have been conditioned to double digit long-term interest rates, and more than a few think it will always be that way. Memories on Wall Street are notoriously short…..Equity Structure Update: Quite a few changes have been made in recent months. This feature details the current conceptual structure.
What About the Oils Now?
The last of the tactical “Oil Patch Recovery” play initiated in early 1983 has been closed out. What now? We expect oil stocks to be underperformers for at least six months. $25 crude prices would not be a surprise in 1984. And on a long-term basis, we still expect oil prices to erratically decline in real dollars for the rest of the century.
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Perception for the Professional
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