Green Book December 2019
How Will It Be Remembered?
A way to gain perspective on the present is by trying to view it from the future. Ask yourself, “What are the signs of impending decline, now ignored by investors, that will one day be memorialized by the same investors as the most obvious in retrospect?”
Login
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Not a Subscriber?
If you are interested in subscribing to The Leuthold Group, contact us online or give us a call at 612-332-1567.
Contact Us
Featured Articles
Risks Still High In The “Median” Large Cap
The relative domination of Mega Caps might leave the impression that valuation of the “typical” (or median) Large Cap stock is reasonable. It’s not. The fall rally leaves all major valuation ratios for the median S&P 500 stock in the top decile of the 30-year history, and above the levels prevailing at the September 2018 market high.
Slowdown Or Recession? No Confidence In “Confidence”
The ultimate question is whether the Fed’s recent “insurance cuts” are enough to overcome uncertainties about trade talk—and the upcoming election—to avert a recession. We updated our “Slowdown vs. Recession” study to see where we stand now. The bottom line is: It’s too early to rule out a recession.
Seeing Construction Materials’ True Colors
Construction Materials moved to an Attractive rating, fueled by growth and price momentum. Surprisingly, digging into the numbers revealed it to have lower beta dynamics. Based on this, we examined the cyclical nature of the group to better understand the impact it may have on overall portfolio cyclicality.
Capex Beneficiaries “Delivered,” But Only On Price Action
With optimistic views on capex in late 2017, we built a thematic group of companies that appeared to be potential beneficiaries of higher spending going forward. This group has outperformed the market; but, the capex trend is disappointing and quite concerning.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Capex Beneficiaries “Delivered,” But Only On Price Action
- How Will It Be Remembered?
- A Tough Tape To Read
- Are Stocks And The Economy Disconnected?
- Lagging From Behind?
- A “Best Case” Bear Scenario?
- Risks Still High In The “Median” Large Cap
- More Good News For Small Caps
- A New Take On Small Cap Valuations
- No Place Like Home For The 2010s
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- Earnings Momentum
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Risks Still High In The “Median” Large Cap
The relative domination of Mega Caps might leave the impression that valuation of the “typical” (or median) Large Cap stock is reasonable. It’s not. The fall rally leaves all major valuation ratios for the median S&P 500 stock in the top decile of the 30-year history, and above the levels prevailing at the September 2018 market high.
Slowdown Or Recession? No Confidence In “Confidence”
The ultimate question is whether the Fed’s recent “insurance cuts” are enough to overcome uncertainties about trade talk—and the upcoming election—to avert a recession. We updated our “Slowdown vs. Recession” study to see where we stand now. The bottom line is: It’s too early to rule out a recession.
Seeing Construction Materials’ True Colors
Construction Materials moved to an Attractive rating, fueled by growth and price momentum. Surprisingly, digging into the numbers revealed it to have lower beta dynamics. Based on this, we examined the cyclical nature of the group to better understand the impact it may have on overall portfolio cyclicality.
Capex Beneficiaries “Delivered,” But Only On Price Action
With optimistic views on capex in late 2017, we built a thematic group of companies that appeared to be potential beneficiaries of higher spending going forward. This group has outperformed the market; but, the capex trend is disappointing and quite concerning.
Stock Market
- Capex Beneficiaries “Delivered,” But Only On Price Action
- How Will It Be Remembered?
- A Tough Tape To Read
- Are Stocks And The Economy Disconnected?
- Lagging From Behind?
- A “Best Case” Bear Scenario?
- Risks Still High In The “Median” Large Cap
- More Good News For Small Caps
- A New Take On Small Cap Valuations
- No Place Like Home For The 2010s
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- Earnings Momentum
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
