Green Book May 2020
There’s More To It Than That
It’s a down year for stocks, yet John Bogle must still be chuckling. A full-employment economy that had propped up one of the two most overvalued stock markets in U.S. history just suffered a cataclysmic “sudden stop.” Yet Bogle’s buy-and-hold disciplines have so far dodged the bear. How so? Investors who: (1) own only the S&P 500; (2) reinvest dividends; and, (3) peek at their statements on no more than a monthly basis saw a peak-to-trough loss of only 19.6%. The bull market lives! And history looks better than we remembered it!
Login
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Not a Subscriber?
If you are interested in subscribing to The Leuthold Group, contact us online or give us a call at 612-332-1567.
Contact Us
Featured Articles
Where Are The Leaders We Need?
Small Caps lagged during the bounce off the March lows before a late-April spurt briefly pulled them ahead of the S&P 500. Still, considering that Russell 2000 losses were so much steeper than the S&P 500’s (-43% versus -33%), we would have expected something better.
A Bounce Without “Oomph”
One would think that one of the most explosive market rallies of all time would trip-off all the traditional “breadth thrust” signals, or maybe even invent a few of its own. Sorry, no luck.
Siege Protocol
This study examines the traditional protocol for bear markets to find which tactics worked as expected and which were caught misbehaving. Overall, we conclude that investors were not ready to commit to a full leadership rotation.
Utilities Sector: What’s Driving YTD Performance?
We review the somewhat out-of-character performance of the Utilities sector to try to pinpoint what is influencing results. This article touches on several potential drivers for the sector’s relative strength.
Why Value Failed—Top-Down & Bottom-Up Views
From a top-down view, since 2003, Value’s performance has been much more closely tied to various asset markets and macro drivers. From a bottom-up perspective, we believe the change in Value’s migration behavior might be the key to its failure. We believe macro tailwinds and positive surprises are both necessary for a true Value revival.
Robust Health Care Leads Since Market Peak
Health Care has been the best performing sector following mid-February’s market peak. Its robust relative performance during this bear market isn’t terribly surprising given the sector’s defensive qualities, but it has impressively outpaced other safe haven areas.
A Bear Market In Price, But Not Time?
Valuations aside, the absence of any sustained market pain over the last ten years argues for challenging times for stocks in the new decade.
Valuation Dispersions At Extremes
Valuation dispersions remain at extreme levels. Dispersions within Large Cap stocks remain above Tech Bubble levels, but are on par with Mid and Small Cap stocks on an absolute basis. Spreads within sectors also present historic stock selection opportunities.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- There’s More To It Than That
- Betting Against The Odds?
- Where Are The Leaders We Need?
- Not The Leader We Wanted??
- A Bounce Without “Oomph”
- Calculate The Next Low... With The Last Peak?
- Median Valuations: Down, But Not Cheap
- A Bear Market In Price, But Not Time?
- Is “NASDAQ Fever” Peaking?
- The NOPE Index Says “Nope!”
- Utilities Sector: What’s Driving YTD Performance?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Where Are The Leaders We Need?
Small Caps lagged during the bounce off the March lows before a late-April spurt briefly pulled them ahead of the S&P 500. Still, considering that Russell 2000 losses were so much steeper than the S&P 500’s (-43% versus -33%), we would have expected something better.
A Bounce Without “Oomph”
One would think that one of the most explosive market rallies of all time would trip-off all the traditional “breadth thrust” signals, or maybe even invent a few of its own. Sorry, no luck.
Siege Protocol
This study examines the traditional protocol for bear markets to find which tactics worked as expected and which were caught misbehaving. Overall, we conclude that investors were not ready to commit to a full leadership rotation.
Utilities Sector: What’s Driving YTD Performance?
We review the somewhat out-of-character performance of the Utilities sector to try to pinpoint what is influencing results. This article touches on several potential drivers for the sector’s relative strength.
Why Value Failed—Top-Down & Bottom-Up Views
From a top-down view, since 2003, Value’s performance has been much more closely tied to various asset markets and macro drivers. From a bottom-up perspective, we believe the change in Value’s migration behavior might be the key to its failure. We believe macro tailwinds and positive surprises are both necessary for a true Value revival.
Robust Health Care Leads Since Market Peak
Health Care has been the best performing sector following mid-February’s market peak. Its robust relative performance during this bear market isn’t terribly surprising given the sector’s defensive qualities, but it has impressively outpaced other safe haven areas.
A Bear Market In Price, But Not Time?
Valuations aside, the absence of any sustained market pain over the last ten years argues for challenging times for stocks in the new decade.
Valuation Dispersions At Extremes
Valuation dispersions remain at extreme levels. Dispersions within Large Cap stocks remain above Tech Bubble levels, but are on par with Mid and Small Cap stocks on an absolute basis. Spreads within sectors also present historic stock selection opportunities.
Stock Market
- There’s More To It Than That
- Betting Against The Odds?
- Where Are The Leaders We Need?
- Not The Leader We Wanted??
- A Bounce Without “Oomph”
- Calculate The Next Low... With The Last Peak?
- Median Valuations: Down, But Not Cheap
- A Bear Market In Price, But Not Time?
- Is “NASDAQ Fever” Peaking?
- The NOPE Index Says “Nope!”
- Utilities Sector: What’s Driving YTD Performance?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
