Green Book February 2002
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Featured Articles
2001 Mutual Fund Flow Recap
January 2002 fund flows and a review of the cash flow trends, comparing 2001 levels to previous years.
A Disappointing Start
The “seasonals” were with us, but have yet to produce positive results. “V” shaped economic recovery conviction stronger than a month ago.
Bond Market Summary
Rally due in Q1 2002, but we think Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.
Bounce Update: No Bounce In January
We decided to Play The Bounce late in December. Window dressing and some tax loss selling had continued, creating a second bounce opportunity (at least we thought so).
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Fad Groups
The dramatic performance swings of Security Companies, Energy Technology, and look at a new “fad group,” Nanotechnology.
Insider Block Measures....Remains In Normal Historical Range
Remains within the “normal” historical range for net selling.
Market Timing With The Index Of Leading Economic Indicators
Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a good coincident indicator for the stock market. Looks like it’s on the mend.
NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio: A Useful Tool
The NASDAQ short interest ratio decreased in January.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Employment Services
Quantitative strengths include VLT Momentum, Relative Strength and Judgmental. Group should benefit in first stages of rebounding economy, as employers might be reluctant to hire new full-time employees.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Restaurants
Scoring well across Value, Growth, and Relative Strength parameters. Momentum in group strong (look at relative strength!) but could be additional “cyclical” up leg as economy strengthens.
No Longer Loves Mustard
Pete Larson, at Fleet Financial in Hartford, provided the following story, told by a young father (not Larson). If you have children, you should relate to the father’s story…..I know my son-in-law will.
Scanning The Markets
There certainly was not much evidence of a “January effect” this year. Most of the market indices were down but the S&P Small Cap Index was up slightly.
Tech Watch
S&P Tech up slightly in January, but median PE ratio rises for 5th straight month as poor earnings are reported.
View From The North Country
DALBAR study shows average investor missed out on 17-year bull market performance of 1984-2000.
Volatility Update
While the markets are still very volatile, the vast majority of our volatility charts show 2001 levels down somewhat from 2000.
Why We Still Favor Small Caps Over Large Caps
Prior history shows average period of small cap dominance is about five years...longer than that experienced in the 1990s.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A Disappointing Start
- Bounce Update: No Bounce In January
- 2001 Mutual Fund Flow Recap
- Tech Watch
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Insider Block Measures....Remains In Normal Historical Range
- NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio: A Useful Tool
- Market Timing With The Index Of Leading Economic Indicators
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Fad Groups
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Restaurants
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Employment Services
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
2001 Mutual Fund Flow Recap
January 2002 fund flows and a review of the cash flow trends, comparing 2001 levels to previous years.
A Disappointing Start
The “seasonals” were with us, but have yet to produce positive results. “V” shaped economic recovery conviction stronger than a month ago.
Bond Market Summary
Rally due in Q1 2002, but we think Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.
Bounce Update: No Bounce In January
We decided to Play The Bounce late in December. Window dressing and some tax loss selling had continued, creating a second bounce opportunity (at least we thought so).
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Fad Groups
The dramatic performance swings of Security Companies, Energy Technology, and look at a new “fad group,” Nanotechnology.
Insider Block Measures....Remains In Normal Historical Range
Remains within the “normal” historical range for net selling.
Market Timing With The Index Of Leading Economic Indicators
Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a good coincident indicator for the stock market. Looks like it’s on the mend.
NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio: A Useful Tool
The NASDAQ short interest ratio decreased in January.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Employment Services
Quantitative strengths include VLT Momentum, Relative Strength and Judgmental. Group should benefit in first stages of rebounding economy, as employers might be reluctant to hire new full-time employees.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Restaurants
Scoring well across Value, Growth, and Relative Strength parameters. Momentum in group strong (look at relative strength!) but could be additional “cyclical” up leg as economy strengthens.
No Longer Loves Mustard
Pete Larson, at Fleet Financial in Hartford, provided the following story, told by a young father (not Larson). If you have children, you should relate to the father’s story…..I know my son-in-law will.
Scanning The Markets
There certainly was not much evidence of a “January effect” this year. Most of the market indices were down but the S&P Small Cap Index was up slightly.
Tech Watch
S&P Tech up slightly in January, but median PE ratio rises for 5th straight month as poor earnings are reported.
View From The North Country
DALBAR study shows average investor missed out on 17-year bull market performance of 1984-2000.
Volatility Update
While the markets are still very volatile, the vast majority of our volatility charts show 2001 levels down somewhat from 2000.
Why We Still Favor Small Caps Over Large Caps
Prior history shows average period of small cap dominance is about five years...longer than that experienced in the 1990s.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- A Disappointing Start
- Bounce Update: No Bounce In January
- 2001 Mutual Fund Flow Recap
- Tech Watch
- Volatility Update
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- Insider Block Measures....Remains In Normal Historical Range
- NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio: A Useful Tool
- Market Timing With The Index Of Leading Economic Indicators
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Fad Groups
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Restaurants
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Employment Services
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
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