Green Book May 1984
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Featured Articles
A Timing Move from Cyclical to “Gilt Edged Growth”
Last issue we discussed the strong possibility of this transition. Now we are pretty sure it has taken place. The equity model portfolio is adjusted accordingly, eliminating the remainder of our Super Cyclical holdings and building positions in “Gilt Edged Growth Stocks.” We have also constructed a new index by which to track and evaluate 25 of the best.
Bond Market Summary
T-Bonds broke the August 1983 lows, but municipals and corporates still seem to be holding. Pessimism is rampant. Investors should consider buying T-bonds now. The biggest risk may now be not owning bonds. I expect a good rally momentarily.
Inflation Watch…. The News Is Good!
Most of our inflation momentum work has improved significantly in the past month. The big surprise in the last half of 1984 may be that inflation is not going to accelerate. The 7% inflation many seem to be expecting this year end now looks very unlikely to us. The question is, will the bond market believe it?
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index remains in “neutral,” but it appears the correction lows may have been seen around 1120, DJIA. Our “Early Warning” work remains constructive.
View from the North Country
It seems that once all of Wall Street becomes aware of an indicator or historic market pattern, the damn things no longer seem to work. Is this now true of the Presidential election cycle? Well, don’t give up on this yet. According to Arthur Merrill’s research, the market so far in 1984 has been acting just like it is supposed to. The fireworks come in the last two quarters of the year.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
A Timing Move from Cyclical to “Gilt Edged Growth”
Last issue we discussed the strong possibility of this transition. Now we are pretty sure it has taken place. The equity model portfolio is adjusted accordingly, eliminating the remainder of our Super Cyclical holdings and building positions in “Gilt Edged Growth Stocks.” We have also constructed a new index by which to track and evaluate 25 of the best.
Bond Market Summary
T-Bonds broke the August 1983 lows, but municipals and corporates still seem to be holding. Pessimism is rampant. Investors should consider buying T-bonds now. The biggest risk may now be not owning bonds. I expect a good rally momentarily.
Inflation Watch…. The News Is Good!
Most of our inflation momentum work has improved significantly in the past month. The big surprise in the last half of 1984 may be that inflation is not going to accelerate. The 7% inflation many seem to be expecting this year end now looks very unlikely to us. The question is, will the bond market believe it?
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index remains in “neutral,” but it appears the correction lows may have been seen around 1120, DJIA. Our “Early Warning” work remains constructive.
View from the North Country
It seems that once all of Wall Street becomes aware of an indicator or historic market pattern, the damn things no longer seem to work. Is this now true of the Presidential election cycle? Well, don’t give up on this yet. According to Arthur Merrill’s research, the market so far in 1984 has been acting just like it is supposed to. The fireworks come in the last two quarters of the year.
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
