Green Book May 2003
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Featured Articles
Alert: Changes To The Global Industry Classification System
Each year, S&P and MSCI hold an annual review to make revisions that they believe will better enable their GIC System to most accurately reflect the sectors and industries most relevant to the equity investment community. Beginning on May 1st, a number of changes took place as a result of their annual review.
And Now...Back To The Fundamentals
No doubt, “relief” was the primary component in April’s performance formula. Wall Street can now redirect the focus back to issues of domestic consequence….things like earnings, valuations, and economic growth.
April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Flows Rebound
April’s net inflow total certainly benefited from improved market action, as well as 11th hour IRA contributions ahead of the April 15th deadline.
Better Top Line Growth Points Toward Improved Bottom Line
Earnings momentum may appear to be slowing, but it is last year’s comparisons that were overstating the results.
Bond Market Summary
Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries, if necessary to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom, but will it be the catalyst to boost business spending/borrowing? We think not.
Can Bond Market Returns Match Future Stock Returns?
It will be tough for bonds to keep up with stocks over the next several years even though stock and bond returns are neck and neck over the past twenty years.
Historical Swings In S&P 500 Sector Weights
A look at favoritism shifts in broad economic sectors, 1977 to date. Large weights prone to correction.
Insider Block Measures....Encouraged By New Confirming Bullish Signal
The decline in insider selling this year is a very encouraging sign for the stock market.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both the NASDAQ and NYSE short interest ratios increased in April.
Rising Interest Rates Don't Prohibit Rising Stock Prices
This month, we provide historical evidence that stocks can indeed move higher, even when interest rates rise. Six periods since 1955 are proof that it can happen and we expect it to happen again.
Scanning The Markets
The stock market was very strong in April across the entire market cap spectrum.
Tech Watch
Technology stocks up BIG in April. The NASDAQ gained 9.2% for the month, secondonly to the Russell 2000 in terms of performance.
The Moral of the Story Is...
This issue’s first runner-up comes from Paula Diemer at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, who also does double duty at The Leuthold Group.
The Rationale For Adding REITs To Core Portfolio
Adding new 5.0% REIT holding in Core Portfolio. Viewing it as an alternative to the low fixed income yields.
View From The North Country
Deficit Track” March data encouraging, but…...considering the tax cuts already on the books, combined with a bulge in spending, a fiscal 2003 deficit of $400 billion is in prospect.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility On Par With NASDAQ Volatility In 2003
In terms of High Volatility days in April, the NASDAQ was less volatile than the S&P 500. They are about on par so far YTD.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Can Bond Market Returns Match Future Stock Returns?
- And Now...Back To The Fundamentals
- Rising Interest Rates Don't Prohibit Rising Stock Prices
- Better Top Line Growth Points Toward Improved Bottom Line
- The Rationale For Adding REITs To Core Portfolio
- Alert: Changes To The Global Industry Classification System
- April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Flows Rebound
- Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility On Par With NASDAQ Volatility In 2003
- Insider Block Measures....Encouraged By New Confirming Bullish Signal
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Alert: Changes To The Global Industry Classification System
Each year, S&P and MSCI hold an annual review to make revisions that they believe will better enable their GIC System to most accurately reflect the sectors and industries most relevant to the equity investment community. Beginning on May 1st, a number of changes took place as a result of their annual review.
And Now...Back To The Fundamentals
No doubt, “relief” was the primary component in April’s performance formula. Wall Street can now redirect the focus back to issues of domestic consequence….things like earnings, valuations, and economic growth.
April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Flows Rebound
April’s net inflow total certainly benefited from improved market action, as well as 11th hour IRA contributions ahead of the April 15th deadline.
Better Top Line Growth Points Toward Improved Bottom Line
Earnings momentum may appear to be slowing, but it is last year’s comparisons that were overstating the results.
Bond Market Summary
Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries, if necessary to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom, but will it be the catalyst to boost business spending/borrowing? We think not.
Can Bond Market Returns Match Future Stock Returns?
It will be tough for bonds to keep up with stocks over the next several years even though stock and bond returns are neck and neck over the past twenty years.
Historical Swings In S&P 500 Sector Weights
A look at favoritism shifts in broad economic sectors, 1977 to date. Large weights prone to correction.
Insider Block Measures....Encouraged By New Confirming Bullish Signal
The decline in insider selling this year is a very encouraging sign for the stock market.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both the NASDAQ and NYSE short interest ratios increased in April.
Rising Interest Rates Don't Prohibit Rising Stock Prices
This month, we provide historical evidence that stocks can indeed move higher, even when interest rates rise. Six periods since 1955 are proof that it can happen and we expect it to happen again.
Scanning The Markets
The stock market was very strong in April across the entire market cap spectrum.
Tech Watch
Technology stocks up BIG in April. The NASDAQ gained 9.2% for the month, secondonly to the Russell 2000 in terms of performance.
The Moral of the Story Is...
This issue’s first runner-up comes from Paula Diemer at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, who also does double duty at The Leuthold Group.
The Rationale For Adding REITs To Core Portfolio
Adding new 5.0% REIT holding in Core Portfolio. Viewing it as an alternative to the low fixed income yields.
View From The North Country
Deficit Track” March data encouraging, but…...considering the tax cuts already on the books, combined with a bulge in spending, a fiscal 2003 deficit of $400 billion is in prospect.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility On Par With NASDAQ Volatility In 2003
In terms of High Volatility days in April, the NASDAQ was less volatile than the S&P 500. They are about on par so far YTD.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Can Bond Market Returns Match Future Stock Returns?
- And Now...Back To The Fundamentals
- Rising Interest Rates Don't Prohibit Rising Stock Prices
- Better Top Line Growth Points Toward Improved Bottom Line
- The Rationale For Adding REITs To Core Portfolio
- Alert: Changes To The Global Industry Classification System
- April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Flows Rebound
- Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility On Par With NASDAQ Volatility In 2003
- Insider Block Measures....Encouraged By New Confirming Bullish Signal
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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Sector Navigator
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