Green Book September 2018
Beware The Breakout
The S&P 500 finally erased the losses from its nine-day swoon in January and February. Bullish analysts have been quick to point out that the corporate tax cut helped stocks “grow into” their high valuations during the seven-month recovery.
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Featured Articles
Breakout Or Fake-Out?
The S&P 500 has fully erased its January and February losses, but there’s probably a market message in the fact that it took so long to do so.
Fondly Remembering The Year 2000...
Many equity investors have suggested there’s no comparison between today’s expensive market and the bubble peak of Y2K, pointing out that today’s Technology titans are “real companies” with massive revenue underpinnings.
EM Crisis? Not There Yet
What some EM countries are going through is a classic sequence that can potentially lead to a full-blown EM crisis.
Price Hasn't Mattered
While Momentum continues to work overall, the gains have been skewed to the companies trading at the highest valuation multiples. Extremes, based on both price and valuation, have only been greater a handful of times during the period measured.
Is FANG Forever?
As mania surrounding Apple’s stock was reaching a fever pitch in early 2012, The Leuthold Group wrote a piece entitled, Apple, Just How High Can It Go? To those caught up in the hysteria, the article served as a cautionary reminder.
A Phoenix Rises: The New Communication Services Sector
Herein we include an executive summary previewing our forthcoming, in-depth special report on September’s GICS sector changes. The full report, “A Prehistory of the Communication Services Sector” will be distributed soon.
Yield Curve Proxy—A Tool For Equity Investors
The increasingly greater attention given to the yield curve by equity investors has prompted us to come up with an equity basket that can track the movement of the yield curve. Overall, it does a reasonably good job of capturing the major moves.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Beware The Breakout
- Beware The Policy “Narrative”
- Breakout Or Fake-Out?
- Technical Difficulties
- Fondly Remembering The Year 2000...
- The Commodity Bull That Equity Investors Missed...
- Real Rates And The Federal Deficit
- VLT Turns Up Again??
- S&P 500—Valuation Check-Up
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- EM Crisis? Not There Yet
- Yield Curve Proxy—A Tool For Equity Investors
- Risk Aversion Index: New “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Breakout Or Fake-Out?
The S&P 500 has fully erased its January and February losses, but there’s probably a market message in the fact that it took so long to do so.
Fondly Remembering The Year 2000...
Many equity investors have suggested there’s no comparison between today’s expensive market and the bubble peak of Y2K, pointing out that today’s Technology titans are “real companies” with massive revenue underpinnings.
EM Crisis? Not There Yet
What some EM countries are going through is a classic sequence that can potentially lead to a full-blown EM crisis.
Price Hasn't Mattered
While Momentum continues to work overall, the gains have been skewed to the companies trading at the highest valuation multiples. Extremes, based on both price and valuation, have only been greater a handful of times during the period measured.
Is FANG Forever?
As mania surrounding Apple’s stock was reaching a fever pitch in early 2012, The Leuthold Group wrote a piece entitled, Apple, Just How High Can It Go? To those caught up in the hysteria, the article served as a cautionary reminder.
A Phoenix Rises: The New Communication Services Sector
Herein we include an executive summary previewing our forthcoming, in-depth special report on September’s GICS sector changes. The full report, “A Prehistory of the Communication Services Sector” will be distributed soon.
Yield Curve Proxy—A Tool For Equity Investors
The increasingly greater attention given to the yield curve by equity investors has prompted us to come up with an equity basket that can track the movement of the yield curve. Overall, it does a reasonably good job of capturing the major moves.
Stock Market
- Beware The Breakout
- Beware The Policy “Narrative”
- Breakout Or Fake-Out?
- Technical Difficulties
- Fondly Remembering The Year 2000...
- The Commodity Bull That Equity Investors Missed...
- Real Rates And The Federal Deficit
- VLT Turns Up Again??
- S&P 500—Valuation Check-Up
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- EM Crisis? Not There Yet
- Yield Curve Proxy—A Tool For Equity Investors
- Risk Aversion Index: New “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
