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Green Book August 1990

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Bond Market Summary

All things considered, the bond market held up well in July. And even though the dollar index slid about 4%, there was little progress on the deficit front and inflation fears rose with oil prices. These bond market negatives were offset by increasing evidence of a recession in the works.

Don’t Get Too High On Drugs

As often noted in these pages, as far as stock prices are concerned, investors’ perceptions are often more important than reality. Political focus on the Ethical Drugs will take its toll on drug industry P/E’s, even if nothing ever comes of it.

It Wasn’t Just Kuwait

Iraq may have been responsible for knocking a fast 100 points off the market in early August, but the stock market had already rolled over. The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index deteriorated significantly with the July 27th calculation. This was before Hussein made his move.

Joke of the Month

Cartoon of the Month comes from Cheryl Stafford at Wellington Management in Boston. Cheryl came across this gem in the UK’s Spectator. You might have to think about this one for a minute or so.

Scanning the Markets

A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by July 1990 performance. All screen based Quantitative Themes are included, both active and experimental.

Unconventional Asset Allocation Model Buys Nikkei Put Warrants

As readers know, we have been bears on Tokyo stocks for several years. But we were early in the past. Recent action leads us to believe the bubble may finally have burst, with the remarkable levitation act about over.

View from the North Country

Polling the Financial Analysts Seminar...Welcome Aboard Mike Hamilton...Program Trading And Politics

Was Major Trend Index Sell Signal Really Premature?

Our Major Trend Index sell signal on October 30 may not have been premature, at least not in terms of most stocks. Think of it this way: We did give you plenty of time to get out.

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