Green Book February 1999
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Featured Articles
Big Caps Hot Out Of The Starting Blocks
It’s no secret that the term “January Effect” has taken on a different meaning in recent years. Once a reference to the price bounce that underperforming small caps stocks receive as year end selling pressures dissipate, it has now been adopted by commentators to describe the unconstrained rally of large cap stocks, as the seasonal flood of cash pouring into big cap growth funds is invested
Bond Market Summary
1998 Inflation Projections: CPI expected to end 1999 about unchanged from year end 1998 levels (year over year change of 0.0%).
Earnings Data Sending Conflicting Signals
Up/Down earnings ratio continues to point toward slowing momentum. Last month's ratio (data for complete third quarter) was lowest reading since the beginning of the current economic expansion.
Internet Insanity Index
The insanity continued in January, with the Internet stocks up 56.9% during the month.
January Mutual Fund Flows
Net inflows into U.S. focus equity funds were somewhat ahead of last year’s pace by the end of January. Estimated net inflows of $18 billion compares to last January’s $16.1 billion.
Joke of the Month
This comes from yet another one of our Joke Meisters, Jeanette Scollard Hester, Chairman (person?) of Hester Foods in Carlsbad California.
Playing The Bouce Update
We did not employ this tactical trading strategy in late 1998. Buying the beat up stocks late in the year and holding them into mid-February had been a consistent winning strategy...that is until the last four years.
Putting Proper Perspective Upon Performance
This has been the greatest bull market in history. Investors coming into the market in the last few years have garnered unbelievable returns. Over the last five years, the S&P 500 has compounded at an annual rate of 24.0%.
Technology and Financial Sectors, Together Now Make Up 35% of U.S.Stock Market
BROAD SECTOR PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN BY 3000 STOCK UNIVERSE
Volatility Update...January Was Jumping
Nine out of 19 trading days in January (47%) ended with close to close moves of at least 1% in the S&P 500.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Big Caps Hot Out Of The Starting Blocks
- Putting Proper Perspective Upon Performance
- January Mutual Fund Flows
- Playing The Bouce Update
- Technology and Financial Sectors, Together Now Make Up 35% of U.S.Stock Market
- Volatility Update...January Was Jumping
- Public Confidence Measures
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Big Caps Hot Out Of The Starting Blocks
It’s no secret that the term “January Effect” has taken on a different meaning in recent years. Once a reference to the price bounce that underperforming small caps stocks receive as year end selling pressures dissipate, it has now been adopted by commentators to describe the unconstrained rally of large cap stocks, as the seasonal flood of cash pouring into big cap growth funds is invested
Bond Market Summary
1998 Inflation Projections: CPI expected to end 1999 about unchanged from year end 1998 levels (year over year change of 0.0%).
Earnings Data Sending Conflicting Signals
Up/Down earnings ratio continues to point toward slowing momentum. Last month's ratio (data for complete third quarter) was lowest reading since the beginning of the current economic expansion.
Internet Insanity Index
The insanity continued in January, with the Internet stocks up 56.9% during the month.
January Mutual Fund Flows
Net inflows into U.S. focus equity funds were somewhat ahead of last year’s pace by the end of January. Estimated net inflows of $18 billion compares to last January’s $16.1 billion.
Joke of the Month
This comes from yet another one of our Joke Meisters, Jeanette Scollard Hester, Chairman (person?) of Hester Foods in Carlsbad California.
Playing The Bouce Update
We did not employ this tactical trading strategy in late 1998. Buying the beat up stocks late in the year and holding them into mid-February had been a consistent winning strategy...that is until the last four years.
Putting Proper Perspective Upon Performance
This has been the greatest bull market in history. Investors coming into the market in the last few years have garnered unbelievable returns. Over the last five years, the S&P 500 has compounded at an annual rate of 24.0%.
Technology and Financial Sectors, Together Now Make Up 35% of U.S.Stock Market
BROAD SECTOR PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN BY 3000 STOCK UNIVERSE
Volatility Update...January Was Jumping
Nine out of 19 trading days in January (47%) ended with close to close moves of at least 1% in the S&P 500.
Stock Market
- Big Caps Hot Out Of The Starting Blocks
- Putting Proper Perspective Upon Performance
- January Mutual Fund Flows
- Playing The Bouce Update
- Technology and Financial Sectors, Together Now Make Up 35% of U.S.Stock Market
- Volatility Update...January Was Jumping
- Public Confidence Measures
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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