Green Book April 2011
Login
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Not a Subscriber?
If you are interested in subscribing to The Leuthold Group, contact us online or give us a call at 612-332-1567.
Contact Us
Featured Articles
Believe It Or Not, New Highs
Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.
Bull Market Extension?
VLT has turned up for most market indices. Even though it is still above the zero line, history shows that this signals an extension of the bull market.
Correlations: Still At Peak Levels
Our calculations show the rise and fall of equity group correlations over time. How does this impact returns both historically and going forward?
Emerging Market Indicators Study—Premium/Discount Of Closed End Funds
Asset allocation portfolios continue to hold big positions in Emerging Markets. Jun Zhu presents an initial study exploring the use of Emerging Market Closed End Funds historical premium/discount levels as a predictor of future Emerging Market performance.
Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident
All three PPI measures have their 6 month rates of change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
While Low Quality stocks have been beating High Quality, performance was on par in Q1. High Quality cheap relative to Low Quality and the tide may be turning.
March Performance: Factors Continue To Lack Consistency… Except For Momentum
Momentum once again has the best performance. This out-of-favor factor has continued to outperform the rest of the factors.
Monthly Risk Aversion Index (RAI)
This month’s “Inside The Bond Market” presents our new “Risk Aversion Index,” which was developed by Chun Wang to respond to those factors that the bond market is truly worrying about. The Index examines ten factors on a monthly basis to help best position a bond portfolio.
Splitting Atoms and Hairs: Expect Nuclear Power To Grow (Not Shrink)
Japan’s problems are leading many to write about the demise of nuclear power. However, Dave Kurzman not only believes the nuclear industry will survive, but will also prosper. See this month’s “Of Special Interest” for thoughts regarding this energy source from our Clean Tech guru.
The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is This Cheap Money Era Ending?
Long term interest rates could continue rising, as inflation expectations increase and investors demand higher yields.
The Late Cycle Economy?
With the new ISM figures for March, the Liquidity Index has moved into the maximum negative zone with a reading just below the bearish –20 threshold.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Believe It Or Not, New Highs
- Bull Market Extension?
- The Late Cycle Economy?
- Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
- Emerging Market Indicators Study—Premium/Discount Of Closed End Funds
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is This Cheap Money Era Ending?
- Monthly Risk Aversion Index (RAI)
Quant
- Correlations: Still At Peak Levels
- March Performance: Factors Continue To Lack Consistency… Except For Momentum
Inflation Watch
Believe It Or Not, New Highs
Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.
Bull Market Extension?
VLT has turned up for most market indices. Even though it is still above the zero line, history shows that this signals an extension of the bull market.
Correlations: Still At Peak Levels
Our calculations show the rise and fall of equity group correlations over time. How does this impact returns both historically and going forward?
Emerging Market Indicators Study—Premium/Discount Of Closed End Funds
Asset allocation portfolios continue to hold big positions in Emerging Markets. Jun Zhu presents an initial study exploring the use of Emerging Market Closed End Funds historical premium/discount levels as a predictor of future Emerging Market performance.
Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident
All three PPI measures have their 6 month rates of change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
While Low Quality stocks have been beating High Quality, performance was on par in Q1. High Quality cheap relative to Low Quality and the tide may be turning.
March Performance: Factors Continue To Lack Consistency… Except For Momentum
Momentum once again has the best performance. This out-of-favor factor has continued to outperform the rest of the factors.
Monthly Risk Aversion Index (RAI)
This month’s “Inside The Bond Market” presents our new “Risk Aversion Index,” which was developed by Chun Wang to respond to those factors that the bond market is truly worrying about. The Index examines ten factors on a monthly basis to help best position a bond portfolio.
Splitting Atoms and Hairs: Expect Nuclear Power To Grow (Not Shrink)
Japan’s problems are leading many to write about the demise of nuclear power. However, Dave Kurzman not only believes the nuclear industry will survive, but will also prosper. See this month’s “Of Special Interest” for thoughts regarding this energy source from our Clean Tech guru.
The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is This Cheap Money Era Ending?
Long term interest rates could continue rising, as inflation expectations increase and investors demand higher yields.
The Late Cycle Economy?
With the new ISM figures for March, the Liquidity Index has moved into the maximum negative zone with a reading just below the bearish –20 threshold.
Stock Market
- Believe It Or Not, New Highs
- Bull Market Extension?
- The Late Cycle Economy?
- Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
- Emerging Market Indicators Study—Premium/Discount Of Closed End Funds
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is This Cheap Money Era Ending?
- Monthly Risk Aversion Index (RAI)
Quant
- Correlations: Still At Peak Levels
- March Performance: Factors Continue To Lack Consistency… Except For Momentum
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
