Green Book June 2019
Still Tracing Out A Top
Major market tops are drawn-out processes that can prove costly, and infuriating, to bulls and bears alike. Younger readers might be surprised to know that was true before Twitter.
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Featured Articles
Take A Closer Look At “Goldilocks”
We’ve frequently written of the uncanny parallels between the rallies of 2018-19 and 1998-99, but hope that newer readers don’t mistake this analysis as a forecast.
“Granddaddy” Tells A Lie
Based on the “granddaddy” of all technical indicators—the daily advance/decline line—we wouldn’t normally be worried that the April 30th high in the S&P 500 could be the final high of the bull market.
Time For Dividend Stocks, But Stick With Quality
With multiple indicators flashing signs of an economic slowdown amid trade war uncertainty, investors are betting that an interest rate cut is on the horizon.
All That You Don’t Hear About The Curve
While the 10Y-3M curve inversion does warrant extra attention, movements in other parts of the curve also need to be taken into consideration.
Homebuilding Stocks Take Flight
Homebuilding rose to rank #1 among our universe in our latest monthly Group Selection (GS) Scores. The industry has staged an impressive turnaround, beginning in October 2018, with strong returns outpacing the S&P 500 by more than 2.5x YTD.
Still Tracing Out A Top
Major market tops are drawn-out processes that can prove costly, and infuriating, to bulls and bears alike. Younger readers might be surprised to know that was true before Twitter.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Still Tracing Out A Top
- Stock Market Observations
- “Granddaddy” Tells A Lie
- Take A Closer Look At “Goldilocks”
- Profits Have Peaked
- Allocation Implications Of Full Employment
- The Small Cap Discount Deepens
- Bust To Boom, And Back Again
- Portraits Of An Out-Of-Sync Market
- Trend: The New Contrary Indicator?
- Time For Dividend Stocks, But Stick With Quality
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Take A Closer Look At “Goldilocks”
We’ve frequently written of the uncanny parallels between the rallies of 2018-19 and 1998-99, but hope that newer readers don’t mistake this analysis as a forecast.
“Granddaddy” Tells A Lie
Based on the “granddaddy” of all technical indicators—the daily advance/decline line—we wouldn’t normally be worried that the April 30th high in the S&P 500 could be the final high of the bull market.
Time For Dividend Stocks, But Stick With Quality
With multiple indicators flashing signs of an economic slowdown amid trade war uncertainty, investors are betting that an interest rate cut is on the horizon.
All That You Don’t Hear About The Curve
While the 10Y-3M curve inversion does warrant extra attention, movements in other parts of the curve also need to be taken into consideration.
Homebuilding Stocks Take Flight
Homebuilding rose to rank #1 among our universe in our latest monthly Group Selection (GS) Scores. The industry has staged an impressive turnaround, beginning in October 2018, with strong returns outpacing the S&P 500 by more than 2.5x YTD.
Still Tracing Out A Top
Major market tops are drawn-out processes that can prove costly, and infuriating, to bulls and bears alike. Younger readers might be surprised to know that was true before Twitter.
Stock Market
- Still Tracing Out A Top
- Stock Market Observations
- “Granddaddy” Tells A Lie
- Take A Closer Look At “Goldilocks”
- Profits Have Peaked
- Allocation Implications Of Full Employment
- The Small Cap Discount Deepens
- Bust To Boom, And Back Again
- Portraits Of An Out-Of-Sync Market
- Trend: The New Contrary Indicator?
- Time For Dividend Stocks, But Stick With Quality
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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