Green Book March 2008
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Featured Articles
Bear Market Bottom This Summer?
What follows is my attempt to accentuate the positive; why the current bear market may be maturing and bottoming out sooner than you might think.
Can Growth Stocks Outperform Value In A Bear Market? You ‘BETA’ Believe It!
Conventional wisdom and modern day historical evidence indicate that Value stocks do better in bear markets. But from the 1920s through the 1970s, it was Growth that held up best during bear market declines.
Client Question: VLT Buy Signals
“Given the broad declines in the stock market since October 2007, are there any particular industry groups which are beginning to look washed out enough to trigger a buy signal on the VLT work you employ in your Group Selection Scores?”
February Market Action
The stock market continued to trend lower in February, with most broad indexes posting losses in the 2%-3% range by month end.
Food & Energy Inflation Has Been A Leading Indicator Of The “Core” CPI
Persistently high Food and Energy prices tend to drive the “Core” CPI inflation rate higher. These two subsets have now been in a rising pattern since the late nineties and cost pressures are forcing more and more manufacturers to raise prices.
Housing Fallout: Here’s A “Window” That Isn’t Broken Or Boarded Up...
Following patterns of past burst bubbles, Homebuilders seem poised to rally.
Insider Block Measures...Insider Selling Has Slowed Considerably
The factor measuring “Big Block Insider (Dollar)” transactions is now rated positive.
Jobs/Consumer Data Flashing Recessionary Signals
Optimists have continuously cited low unemployment and the ever resilient U.S. consumer as two “pillars of strength” that will help keep the economy afloat. It has become considerably more difficult to make this case in recent months, as jobs and spending data have weakened to levels associated with recessions.
Not As Bad As January...
First, let us be thankful February 29th only occurs every four years. No, we haven’t done a historical performance analysis of past leap year extra days, but you can be certain somebody now has. Whatever, it was a bad end to February 2008.
Profit Margins In Retreat....The Mathematics Of The Downside
Profit margins contracting. Assuming margins fall back to median historical levels, this implies a market decline of about 18%.
The Median P/E Valuation Benchmark
When stocks get back to median valuation levels, the odds are the stock market is at or close to its lows.
Worth Noting???
What follows are my personal observations and opinions. I am an anti-inflation fiscal conservative and I know some would add “curmudgeon” to this description.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Not As Bad As January...
- Bear Market Bottom This Summer?
- The Median P/E Valuation Benchmark
- Worth Noting???
- February Market Action
- Profit Margins In Retreat....The Mathematics Of The Downside
- Housing Fallout: Here’s A “Window” That Isn’t Broken Or Boarded Up...
- Insider Block Measures...Insider Selling Has Slowed Considerably
- Client Question: VLT Buy Signals
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
Bear Market Bottom This Summer?
What follows is my attempt to accentuate the positive; why the current bear market may be maturing and bottoming out sooner than you might think.
Can Growth Stocks Outperform Value In A Bear Market? You ‘BETA’ Believe It!
Conventional wisdom and modern day historical evidence indicate that Value stocks do better in bear markets. But from the 1920s through the 1970s, it was Growth that held up best during bear market declines.
Client Question: VLT Buy Signals
“Given the broad declines in the stock market since October 2007, are there any particular industry groups which are beginning to look washed out enough to trigger a buy signal on the VLT work you employ in your Group Selection Scores?”
February Market Action
The stock market continued to trend lower in February, with most broad indexes posting losses in the 2%-3% range by month end.
Food & Energy Inflation Has Been A Leading Indicator Of The “Core” CPI
Persistently high Food and Energy prices tend to drive the “Core” CPI inflation rate higher. These two subsets have now been in a rising pattern since the late nineties and cost pressures are forcing more and more manufacturers to raise prices.
Housing Fallout: Here’s A “Window” That Isn’t Broken Or Boarded Up...
Following patterns of past burst bubbles, Homebuilders seem poised to rally.
Insider Block Measures...Insider Selling Has Slowed Considerably
The factor measuring “Big Block Insider (Dollar)” transactions is now rated positive.
Jobs/Consumer Data Flashing Recessionary Signals
Optimists have continuously cited low unemployment and the ever resilient U.S. consumer as two “pillars of strength” that will help keep the economy afloat. It has become considerably more difficult to make this case in recent months, as jobs and spending data have weakened to levels associated with recessions.
Not As Bad As January...
First, let us be thankful February 29th only occurs every four years. No, we haven’t done a historical performance analysis of past leap year extra days, but you can be certain somebody now has. Whatever, it was a bad end to February 2008.
Profit Margins In Retreat....The Mathematics Of The Downside
Profit margins contracting. Assuming margins fall back to median historical levels, this implies a market decline of about 18%.
The Median P/E Valuation Benchmark
When stocks get back to median valuation levels, the odds are the stock market is at or close to its lows.
Worth Noting???
What follows are my personal observations and opinions. I am an anti-inflation fiscal conservative and I know some would add “curmudgeon” to this description.
Stock Market
- Not As Bad As January...
- Bear Market Bottom This Summer?
- The Median P/E Valuation Benchmark
- Worth Noting???
- February Market Action
- Profit Margins In Retreat....The Mathematics Of The Downside
- Housing Fallout: Here’s A “Window” That Isn’t Broken Or Boarded Up...
- Insider Block Measures...Insider Selling Has Slowed Considerably
- Client Question: VLT Buy Signals
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
