Green Book November 1998
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Featured Articles
Bear Market Rally or Bull Market?
Major Trend Index improved to Neutral but not offering any guidance as to whether this is a bear market rally or a bull market.
Bond Market Summary
At current levels U.S. T-bonds are no longer viewed as attractive. U.S. T-bond potential downside now about matches upside potential. Our 17 year old 5% T-bond target was achieved last month.
How Long Can This Go On?
Unless earnings begin to show strong signs of growth (not evident at present), the stock market is clearly still ahead of itself (even after the decline).
Insider Block Measures...Big Block Buying Strengthens During October
On balance, latest week’s big block sells still outnumber the unusually high number of big block buys, but the 10 week average is approaching net buying territory (historically an excellent time to buy stocks).
Joke of the Month
Michael Hirsch included this message with his following October entry “I have the spot on my office wall already picked out for Blue #2.”
October Mutual Fund Flows
Public confidence measures have taken some sharp declines in recent weeks but mutual fund investors have cautiously returned as net buyers. Meanwhile the mountain of cash in U.S. focus equity mutual funds has climbed to $125 billion.
October: Who Woulda Thought…
The evils of October vanished after the first six trading days. Small can stocks cheap relative to large caps but not cheap relative to their own history.
Playing the Bounce
Leuthold October 15th Bounce list performance was extraordinary!
Public Conficence Measures
Numerous measures experienced sharp drops corresponding closely to the stock market sell off. Without a bounce in the next two months, the outlook for the economy and the stock market may look quite bleak.
Scanning the Markets
Technology-related sectors took lead in October rally. Small caps lagged for the month, but came on strong in last two weeks.
View From the North Country
Recent “hedge” fund trauma marks the end of hedge fund mania. The risk in quantitative models: Never bet the entire farm on any statistical model when the unpredictability of the human factor is involved.
Volatility Update...Still Movin’ and Shakin’
October proved to be the most volatile month thus far in 1998.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- October: Who Woulda Thought…
- Bear Market Rally or Bull Market?
- Public Conficence Measures
- October Mutual Fund Flows
- Insider Block Measures...Big Block Buying Strengthens During October
- Volatility Update...Still Movin’ and Shakin’
- How Long Can This Go On?
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bear Market Rally or Bull Market?
Major Trend Index improved to Neutral but not offering any guidance as to whether this is a bear market rally or a bull market.
Bond Market Summary
At current levels U.S. T-bonds are no longer viewed as attractive. U.S. T-bond potential downside now about matches upside potential. Our 17 year old 5% T-bond target was achieved last month.
How Long Can This Go On?
Unless earnings begin to show strong signs of growth (not evident at present), the stock market is clearly still ahead of itself (even after the decline).
Insider Block Measures...Big Block Buying Strengthens During October
On balance, latest week’s big block sells still outnumber the unusually high number of big block buys, but the 10 week average is approaching net buying territory (historically an excellent time to buy stocks).
Joke of the Month
Michael Hirsch included this message with his following October entry “I have the spot on my office wall already picked out for Blue #2.”
October Mutual Fund Flows
Public confidence measures have taken some sharp declines in recent weeks but mutual fund investors have cautiously returned as net buyers. Meanwhile the mountain of cash in U.S. focus equity mutual funds has climbed to $125 billion.
October: Who Woulda Thought…
The evils of October vanished after the first six trading days. Small can stocks cheap relative to large caps but not cheap relative to their own history.
Playing the Bounce
Leuthold October 15th Bounce list performance was extraordinary!
Public Conficence Measures
Numerous measures experienced sharp drops corresponding closely to the stock market sell off. Without a bounce in the next two months, the outlook for the economy and the stock market may look quite bleak.
Scanning the Markets
Technology-related sectors took lead in October rally. Small caps lagged for the month, but came on strong in last two weeks.
View From the North Country
Recent “hedge” fund trauma marks the end of hedge fund mania. The risk in quantitative models: Never bet the entire farm on any statistical model when the unpredictability of the human factor is involved.
Volatility Update...Still Movin’ and Shakin’
October proved to be the most volatile month thus far in 1998.
Stock Market
- October: Who Woulda Thought…
- Bear Market Rally or Bull Market?
- Public Conficence Measures
- October Mutual Fund Flows
- Insider Block Measures...Big Block Buying Strengthens During October
- Volatility Update...Still Movin’ and Shakin’
- How Long Can This Go On?
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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Sector Navigator
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