Green Book January 2016
Not A “Stealth” Decline Any Longer...
We don’t believe in the old sports maxim that “defense wins championships.” (For one thing, that would imply an early playoff exit for the Minnesota Vikings.)
Login
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Not a Subscriber?
If you are interested in subscribing to The Leuthold Group, contact us online or give us a call at 612-332-1567.
Contact Us
Featured Articles
Major Trend Index Deteriorated Back To Negative In Mid-December
Leuthold Core and Global Funds’ net equity exposure trimmed back to 38%. It is now our opinion that the early January sell-off constitutes part of a second downleg in a cyclical bear market that began in May 2015.
Not A “Stealth” Decline Any Longer...
The most compelling evidence that a bear market is underway may not be what’s been punished (Transports, Small Caps), but what hasn’t. We believe the final bull market highs of any composite or sector index were recorded on December 29th.
2016 Time Cycle—Not Likely To Be A Typical Year
The 2016 pattern looks good on paper, but if the excitement in the first week of the year is any indication, we highly doubt 2016 will turn out to be another typical election year.
Knee Deep In An Earnings Recession
It’s a scary thought but what does 2015 have in common with the infamous years of 2001, 2008, and 2009? An earnings recession for the S&P 500 — and the 2015 vintage certainly has some unique traits.
GS Scores Perform Well In 2015
The Attractive-rated groups outperformed the Unattractive groups by 15.5% in 2015. This is the third positive year in a row, and the best performance differential since 2008.
Financials Strengthen; Regional Banks Purchased
Financials rose in December to rank #1 among sectors for the first time since the start of the financial crisis. In-line with our quantitative disciplines, we added a new Financials group to the Select Industries Portfolio: Regional Banks.
Opportunities Among Chinese Companies Going Private
As another Chinese stock market drama is unfolding, we may see a repeat of last summer’s action, where U.S.-listed stocks with pending “going private” deals saw their discounts widen significantly.
Annual Industry Group Dreams & Nightmares
A review of the past year’s performance of “Dream” and “Nightmare” equity groups from back in 2014.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Not A “Stealth” Decline Any Longer...
- Two Worrisome Bull Market Highs
- Fed Tightening: The Two-Year Anniversary?
- Deciphering The Transports’ Message
- The “Star” Is Aligned For 2016
- Small Cap P/E Ratios: Not Yet Low Enough
- Foreign Stocks: The Value Trap Persists
- Asset Allocation: No Upside In 2015
- Asset Allocation: Buy Weakness Or Strength?
- Bridesmaid Asset Strategy
- Bridesmaid Sector Strategy
- Cheapest Sector Strategy
- Annual Industry Group Dreams & Nightmares
- Opportunities Among Chinese Companies Going Private
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- 2015 - All Risk And No Reward
- 2016 Time Cycle—Not Likely To Be A Typical Year
- Risk Aversion Index—Moved Up But Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- GS Scores Perform Well In 2015
- Financials Strengthen; Regional Banks Purchased
- Highlighted Attractive Groups
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
- Domestic & Global Long-Only Portfolios
- 100% Short Portfolio: AdvantHedge
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Major Trend Index Deteriorated Back To Negative In Mid-December
Leuthold Core and Global Funds’ net equity exposure trimmed back to 38%. It is now our opinion that the early January sell-off constitutes part of a second downleg in a cyclical bear market that began in May 2015.
Not A “Stealth” Decline Any Longer...
The most compelling evidence that a bear market is underway may not be what’s been punished (Transports, Small Caps), but what hasn’t. We believe the final bull market highs of any composite or sector index were recorded on December 29th.
2016 Time Cycle—Not Likely To Be A Typical Year
The 2016 pattern looks good on paper, but if the excitement in the first week of the year is any indication, we highly doubt 2016 will turn out to be another typical election year.
Knee Deep In An Earnings Recession
It’s a scary thought but what does 2015 have in common with the infamous years of 2001, 2008, and 2009? An earnings recession for the S&P 500 — and the 2015 vintage certainly has some unique traits.
GS Scores Perform Well In 2015
The Attractive-rated groups outperformed the Unattractive groups by 15.5% in 2015. This is the third positive year in a row, and the best performance differential since 2008.
Financials Strengthen; Regional Banks Purchased
Financials rose in December to rank #1 among sectors for the first time since the start of the financial crisis. In-line with our quantitative disciplines, we added a new Financials group to the Select Industries Portfolio: Regional Banks.
Opportunities Among Chinese Companies Going Private
As another Chinese stock market drama is unfolding, we may see a repeat of last summer’s action, where U.S.-listed stocks with pending “going private” deals saw their discounts widen significantly.
Annual Industry Group Dreams & Nightmares
A review of the past year’s performance of “Dream” and “Nightmare” equity groups from back in 2014.
Stock Market
- Not A “Stealth” Decline Any Longer...
- Two Worrisome Bull Market Highs
- Fed Tightening: The Two-Year Anniversary?
- Deciphering The Transports’ Message
- The “Star” Is Aligned For 2016
- Small Cap P/E Ratios: Not Yet Low Enough
- Foreign Stocks: The Value Trap Persists
- Asset Allocation: No Upside In 2015
- Asset Allocation: Buy Weakness Or Strength?
- Bridesmaid Asset Strategy
- Bridesmaid Sector Strategy
- Cheapest Sector Strategy
- Annual Industry Group Dreams & Nightmares
- Opportunities Among Chinese Companies Going Private
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- 2015 - All Risk And No Reward
- 2016 Time Cycle—Not Likely To Be A Typical Year
- Risk Aversion Index—Moved Up But Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- GS Scores Perform Well In 2015
- Financials Strengthen; Regional Banks Purchased
- Highlighted Attractive Groups
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
- Domestic & Global Long-Only Portfolios
- 100% Short Portfolio: AdvantHedge
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
