Green Book March 2014
‘Happy Birthday Bull Market, Happy Birthday To You’
The bull market turns five this month, and we are in the mood for a party. But like any five year old’s birthday party, the enjoyment and exuberance can turn to tears at any time. We examine a number of factors, looking for what could spoil the party. We think Technology’s prospects for long-term leadership looks good for a variety of reasons. We update why we like the IT Consulting & Other Services group. We dusted off our research from 2011 on dividend growers, but broadened our scope to the global equity markets to identify candidates that may be off the radar of U.S.-oriented investors. Somewhat to our surprise, we found fewer qualifiers this time, and a shift from Europe to Asia.
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Featured Articles
Technology’s Prospects For Long Term Leadership Looking Good
Nine Technology groups are in the top quintile of our group model, and the sector has strengthened on a relative basis after twice “testing” a trendline that dates back to the early 2000’s tech wreck. There’s reason to believe the new uptrend has longer-term legs.
Group Update: IT Consulting & Other Services
We’ve held this group since August 2012. Its GS Score has continued to improve and currently ranks second out of 120 groups. Solid factor readings, coupled with a brightening fundamental picture in both the industry and the sector, keep us invested in this space.
Sustainable Dividend Growers Turn From Europe To Asia
We dusted off our research from 2011 on dividend growers. Somewhat to our surprise, we found fewer qualifiers this time, and a shift from Europe to Asia.
Long-Term Equity Performance Coming Up Short
The bull market has pushed short-term annualized performance readings well above median levels, while the longer-term readings remain subdued. But there is a silver lining…
South Korea’s Market Concentration Risk
The “South Korean Discount” comes from high market concentration risks due to: a handful of companies with significant market weights, tight business relationships with suppliers, and high levels of cross-ownership among companies.
RAI Falls Sharply—New “Lower Risk” Signal
This closed out the one month old “Higher Risk” signal. We continue to favor high quality credits within fixed income.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The Bull Market Turns Five
- Bulling Through The History Books
- Stock Market Observations
- Market Valuation Check
- Valuation: Today Versus The Late 1990s
- Another Kind Of Decoupling?
- Long-Term Equity Performance Coming Up Short
- South Korea’s Market Concentration Risk
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- US 10-Year: Still Looking for Direction
- Have We Seen This Post-QE Movie Before? It’s Still Too Early To Call
- RAI Falls Sharply—New “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Health Care Strength... More Than Biotech?
- Highlighted Attractive Groups
- Group Update: IT Consulting & Other Services
- Sustainable Dividend Growers Turn From Europe To Asia
- GS Framework Changes Resulting From GICS Restructuring
Quant
Market Internals
- Small/Mid/Large Caps
- Growth/Value/Cyclicals
- S&P 500: Equal Weighted Index Continues To Excel
- Earnings Momentum
Portfolios
- Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Increased Slightly In February
- Long Only Portfolios Beating Benchmarks
- Short Portfolios: Both Portfolios Up For The Month But Lag Benchmarks
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Technology’s Prospects For Long Term Leadership Looking Good
Nine Technology groups are in the top quintile of our group model, and the sector has strengthened on a relative basis after twice “testing” a trendline that dates back to the early 2000’s tech wreck. There’s reason to believe the new uptrend has longer-term legs.
Group Update: IT Consulting & Other Services
We’ve held this group since August 2012. Its GS Score has continued to improve and currently ranks second out of 120 groups. Solid factor readings, coupled with a brightening fundamental picture in both the industry and the sector, keep us invested in this space.
Sustainable Dividend Growers Turn From Europe To Asia
We dusted off our research from 2011 on dividend growers. Somewhat to our surprise, we found fewer qualifiers this time, and a shift from Europe to Asia.
Long-Term Equity Performance Coming Up Short
The bull market has pushed short-term annualized performance readings well above median levels, while the longer-term readings remain subdued. But there is a silver lining…
South Korea’s Market Concentration Risk
The “South Korean Discount” comes from high market concentration risks due to: a handful of companies with significant market weights, tight business relationships with suppliers, and high levels of cross-ownership among companies.
RAI Falls Sharply—New “Lower Risk” Signal
This closed out the one month old “Higher Risk” signal. We continue to favor high quality credits within fixed income.
Stock Market
- The Bull Market Turns Five
- Bulling Through The History Books
- Stock Market Observations
- Market Valuation Check
- Valuation: Today Versus The Late 1990s
- Another Kind Of Decoupling?
- Long-Term Equity Performance Coming Up Short
- South Korea’s Market Concentration Risk
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- US 10-Year: Still Looking for Direction
- Have We Seen This Post-QE Movie Before? It’s Still Too Early To Call
- RAI Falls Sharply—New “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Health Care Strength... More Than Biotech?
- Highlighted Attractive Groups
- Group Update: IT Consulting & Other Services
- Sustainable Dividend Growers Turn From Europe To Asia
- GS Framework Changes Resulting From GICS Restructuring
Quant
Market Internals
- Small/Mid/Large Caps
- Growth/Value/Cyclicals
- S&P 500: Equal Weighted Index Continues To Excel
- Earnings Momentum
Portfolios
- Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Increased Slightly In February
- Long Only Portfolios Beating Benchmarks
- Short Portfolios: Both Portfolios Up For The Month But Lag Benchmarks
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
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