Green Book October 2017
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Year Of The G.O.A.T. ?
Entering 2017, we expected a stock market “melt-up” to the 2,550-2,600 level on the S&P 500—a move we thought might run into trouble by late summer.
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Dialing In On Downside Risks
Question: Your “Estimating The Downside” section shows the S&P 500 would lose 26% if it reverts to its 1957-to-date median valuation level. The downside estimate for the S&P Industrials Index, however, is almost -40%. Why such a huge difference?
The Latest Sure Thing
A fascinating aspect of long-running bull markets is the emergence of money-spinning strategies that come to be seen as “sure things.”
U.S. Rates: Range Intact, Bias Higher
The mini bond market sell-off in September was fueled by a string of positive developments, which should support the case for further upside in the Economic Surprise Index in the fourth quarter.
Balance Sheet Reduction ≠ Higher Rates
Overall, the impact of balance sheet reduction on interest rates is weak, at best. Inflation is a much bigger longer-term driver of interest rates.
Autonomous Vehicles: Building A Thematic Group
Rapid growth, coupled with regulatory support, has the potential to bring autonomous vehicles (AV) to the streets sooner than some may anticipate.
YTD Fund Inflow Highest On Record
On a cumulative basis, YTD through August, equity and bond funds (ex. money market) have captured more money than ever before over the same period.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Year Of The G.O.A.T. ?
- Better To Have And Not Need
- Thoughts On Sentiment
- How To Double Your Money In Ten Years
- Too Much Of A Good Thing?
- Stocks And The Economy
- Dialing In On Downside Risks
- Stocks Versus Your “Personal” Inflation Rate
- Breaking The Pattern?
- Valuation-Based Country Selection/Rotation
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- U.S. Rates: Range Intact, Bias Higher
- Balance Sheet Reduction ≠ Higher Rates
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On The “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Dialing In On Downside Risks
Question: Your “Estimating The Downside” section shows the S&P 500 would lose 26% if it reverts to its 1957-to-date median valuation level. The downside estimate for the S&P Industrials Index, however, is almost -40%. Why such a huge difference?
The Latest Sure Thing
A fascinating aspect of long-running bull markets is the emergence of money-spinning strategies that come to be seen as “sure things.”
U.S. Rates: Range Intact, Bias Higher
The mini bond market sell-off in September was fueled by a string of positive developments, which should support the case for further upside in the Economic Surprise Index in the fourth quarter.
Balance Sheet Reduction ≠ Higher Rates
Overall, the impact of balance sheet reduction on interest rates is weak, at best. Inflation is a much bigger longer-term driver of interest rates.
Autonomous Vehicles: Building A Thematic Group
Rapid growth, coupled with regulatory support, has the potential to bring autonomous vehicles (AV) to the streets sooner than some may anticipate.
YTD Fund Inflow Highest On Record
On a cumulative basis, YTD through August, equity and bond funds (ex. money market) have captured more money than ever before over the same period.
Stock Market
- Year Of The G.O.A.T. ?
- Better To Have And Not Need
- Thoughts On Sentiment
- How To Double Your Money In Ten Years
- Too Much Of A Good Thing?
- Stocks And The Economy
- Dialing In On Downside Risks
- Stocks Versus Your “Personal” Inflation Rate
- Breaking The Pattern?
- Valuation-Based Country Selection/Rotation
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- U.S. Rates: Range Intact, Bias Higher
- Balance Sheet Reduction ≠ Higher Rates
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On The “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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