Green Book June 2023
Echoes Of 2021
The NY FANG+® Index is up 68% YTD and +21% in the last month, with the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 up less than 2% YTD. Yet a measure of internal market disparity has 2023 barely cracking the top-ten of “incongruent” market years—meaning it can get worse before it gets better.
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Featured Articles
The Pre-Election “Put”
Years preceding presidential elections are more likely than others to feature stock-price action that is favorably disconnected from the fundamentals. Since 1926, the average S&P 500 gain in a pre-election year is +14.2%—about double the next-best year of the cycle.
This Curve Threw Us A Curve...
Future economists learning of zero interest rates and Fed balance-sheet expansion during the 2021 inflation surge may wonder if policymakers were “on” something. Jay Powell is clearly “onto” something with his focus on a measure that few are familiar with: the Near-Term Forward Spread (NTFS).
Research Preview: Recessionary Discretionary
While sentiment on the potential for a recession by year-end is split, there is little dispute that it’s an important question for cyclical sectors. Consumer Discretionary is most exposed to the business cycle, and we are interested in understanding its prospects as we head toward a potential economic slowdown.
Liquidity & Lending—Headwinds Still Ahead
Liquidity and lending conditions have tightened significantly over the course of the current tightening cycle, but they are likely to get worse before they get better.
S&P 500 Earnings Waterfall 1Q 2023
This note continues our practice of summarizing the latest earnings season by analyzing the composite results of the S&P 500 member companies, as if the SPY ETF represented a share in a single company with 500 subsidiaries.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Echoes Of 2021
- Youthful Rally Already Looks Old
- Stocks Versus “Safe Havens”
- Just A Typical Pre-Recessionary Rally?
- Revisiting The 1966 Forecast Failure
- Watching The Wealth Effect
- This Curve Threw Us A Curve...
- The Pre-Election “Put”
- A Look At Where Rate Hikes Are “Working”
- A Rear-View Peek At The Future
- Even The Labor Market Looks Recessionary
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum - Still Flashing Recession
- Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
- Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Estimating the Downside
At Random
The Pre-Election “Put”
Years preceding presidential elections are more likely than others to feature stock-price action that is favorably disconnected from the fundamentals. Since 1926, the average S&P 500 gain in a pre-election year is +14.2%—about double the next-best year of the cycle.
This Curve Threw Us A Curve...
Future economists learning of zero interest rates and Fed balance-sheet expansion during the 2021 inflation surge may wonder if policymakers were “on” something. Jay Powell is clearly “onto” something with his focus on a measure that few are familiar with: the Near-Term Forward Spread (NTFS).
Research Preview: Recessionary Discretionary
While sentiment on the potential for a recession by year-end is split, there is little dispute that it’s an important question for cyclical sectors. Consumer Discretionary is most exposed to the business cycle, and we are interested in understanding its prospects as we head toward a potential economic slowdown.
Liquidity & Lending—Headwinds Still Ahead
Liquidity and lending conditions have tightened significantly over the course of the current tightening cycle, but they are likely to get worse before they get better.
S&P 500 Earnings Waterfall 1Q 2023
This note continues our practice of summarizing the latest earnings season by analyzing the composite results of the S&P 500 member companies, as if the SPY ETF represented a share in a single company with 500 subsidiaries.
Stock Market
- Echoes Of 2021
- Youthful Rally Already Looks Old
- Stocks Versus “Safe Havens”
- Just A Typical Pre-Recessionary Rally?
- Revisiting The 1966 Forecast Failure
- Watching The Wealth Effect
- This Curve Threw Us A Curve...
- The Pre-Election “Put”
- A Look At Where Rate Hikes Are “Working”
- A Rear-View Peek At The Future
- Even The Labor Market Looks Recessionary
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum - Still Flashing Recession
- Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
- Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Estimating the Downside
At Random
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