Green Book January 2007
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Featured Articles
Inflation Is A Potential Threat
Inflation prospects are especially unclear. While many inflation gauges seem to be slowing, the threat of an inflation flare-up remains.
2006 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
A look back at the performance one would have achieved by investing in the year’s best groups and the pain felt from investing in the worst performing groups in 2006. We also examine the strategy of buying a prior year’s winners and losers in anticipation of better performance the following year.
2007 Outlook: CPI Tame First Half And Economy Chugging Ahead Slowly
Expect economic recovery to pick up a little steam in early 2007, before slowing down in the second half. A 2008 recession is a possibility.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2006
Our annual “Look In The Rearview Mirror”, a critical examination of the research in 2006...the good and the bad.
December Market Action
Many of the broad market indexes climbed to new cyclical highs in late-December, confirming that 2007 is almost certain to begin with a bull market still in command.
Dialing Up Our Exposure To Telecom – Defensive, Dividend Yields, & Potential For Consolidation
Adding two new portfolio groups to Select Industries Portfolio this month: Integrated Telecom and Wireless Telecom. These additions create a portfolio weight that is four times the S&P 500 Telecom weight.
Emerging Market Equities – Frothy Sentiment Could Weigh On Asset Class Near Term
Emerging Markets have attracted a lot of investor interest...possibly too much interest. This seems to be just about everyone’s favorite investment for 2007.
Expectations For Bonds Still Too High
Despite the December correction, our 10-week Hines ratio (a modified put/call ratio) continues to show rampant speculation in T-bond futures call options, suggesting speculators are still betting on declining yields.
Group Selection Scoring System: 2006 Performance Review
The equity markets proved elusive for active managers in 2006. It took great courage and maybe even some luck to call the various market turns correctly.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Main Street Again Ignores U.S. Stock Market Strength In 2006
As measured by the lackluster levels of cash flow into U.S. equity funds, much of 2006 saw a low level of interest in the U.S. stock on the part of Main Street investors, despite the continued gains posted by U.S. equity indexes.
Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Falters In December (Individual Investor Tax Selling)
The weak December performance is to be expected, as many of these “Bounce” stocks likely came under additional selling pressure as individuals were cleaning out their portfolios at year end.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold highlights his 2007 Outlook in this month’s “View From The North Country”.
Weighted Versus Unweighted: Inside The S&P 500
In 2006, the capitalization weighted S&P 500 was up 13.6%, excluding dividends. The average return for the 500 stocks (S&P equally weighted) was up 14.2%.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- December Market Action
- Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Falters In December (Individual Investor Tax Selling)
- Emerging Market Equities – Frothy Sentiment Could Weigh On Asset Class Near Term
- A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2006
- Weighted Versus Unweighted: Inside The S&P 500
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Main Street Again Ignores U.S. Stock Market Strength In 2006
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Expectations For Bonds Still Too High
- 2007 Outlook: CPI Tame First Half And Economy Chugging Ahead Slowly
Equity Strategies
- Dialing Up Our Exposure To Telecom – Defensive, Dividend Yields, & Potential For Consolidation
- Group Selection Scoring System: 2006 Performance Review
Inflation Watch
Inflation Is A Potential Threat
Inflation prospects are especially unclear. While many inflation gauges seem to be slowing, the threat of an inflation flare-up remains.
2006 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
A look back at the performance one would have achieved by investing in the year’s best groups and the pain felt from investing in the worst performing groups in 2006. We also examine the strategy of buying a prior year’s winners and losers in anticipation of better performance the following year.
2007 Outlook: CPI Tame First Half And Economy Chugging Ahead Slowly
Expect economic recovery to pick up a little steam in early 2007, before slowing down in the second half. A 2008 recession is a possibility.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2006
Our annual “Look In The Rearview Mirror”, a critical examination of the research in 2006...the good and the bad.
December Market Action
Many of the broad market indexes climbed to new cyclical highs in late-December, confirming that 2007 is almost certain to begin with a bull market still in command.
Dialing Up Our Exposure To Telecom – Defensive, Dividend Yields, & Potential For Consolidation
Adding two new portfolio groups to Select Industries Portfolio this month: Integrated Telecom and Wireless Telecom. These additions create a portfolio weight that is four times the S&P 500 Telecom weight.
Emerging Market Equities – Frothy Sentiment Could Weigh On Asset Class Near Term
Emerging Markets have attracted a lot of investor interest...possibly too much interest. This seems to be just about everyone’s favorite investment for 2007.
Expectations For Bonds Still Too High
Despite the December correction, our 10-week Hines ratio (a modified put/call ratio) continues to show rampant speculation in T-bond futures call options, suggesting speculators are still betting on declining yields.
Group Selection Scoring System: 2006 Performance Review
The equity markets proved elusive for active managers in 2006. It took great courage and maybe even some luck to call the various market turns correctly.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Main Street Again Ignores U.S. Stock Market Strength In 2006
As measured by the lackluster levels of cash flow into U.S. equity funds, much of 2006 saw a low level of interest in the U.S. stock on the part of Main Street investors, despite the continued gains posted by U.S. equity indexes.
Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Falters In December (Individual Investor Tax Selling)
The weak December performance is to be expected, as many of these “Bounce” stocks likely came under additional selling pressure as individuals were cleaning out their portfolios at year end.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold highlights his 2007 Outlook in this month’s “View From The North Country”.
Weighted Versus Unweighted: Inside The S&P 500
In 2006, the capitalization weighted S&P 500 was up 13.6%, excluding dividends. The average return for the 500 stocks (S&P equally weighted) was up 14.2%.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- December Market Action
- Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Falters In December (Individual Investor Tax Selling)
- Emerging Market Equities – Frothy Sentiment Could Weigh On Asset Class Near Term
- A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2006
- Weighted Versus Unweighted: Inside The S&P 500
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Main Street Again Ignores U.S. Stock Market Strength In 2006
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Expectations For Bonds Still Too High
- 2007 Outlook: CPI Tame First Half And Economy Chugging Ahead Slowly
Equity Strategies
- Dialing Up Our Exposure To Telecom – Defensive, Dividend Yields, & Potential For Consolidation
- Group Selection Scoring System: 2006 Performance Review
Inflation Watch
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