Green Book March 2010
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Featured Articles
Adding Deep Value—A Bet On “Growth At Reasonable Price”
Within Select Industries Portfolio, Diversified Financial Services equity group has been de-activated, and is being replaced by a screen-based quantitative theme called Deep Value. This is essentially a GARP type screen.
Commodities… And The “Old Normal”?
A loss in leadership by commodity-oriented stocks could be the big surprise for 2010. Commodity sentiment is elevated, and the sector should feel the after-effects of a capacity building binge from late last decade. Rising inflation—if it’s the monetary debasement variety—won’t lift the sector.
First Year In The Books… And Still Bullish
Global bull market is now one year old. U.S. stocks are probably in fair value territory, but should move to moderately overvalued territory as both the economy and investor sentiment improve.
Giving Bonds Short Shrift
At the end of November, The Leuthold Group established a 7% short position in long-term Treasury bonds across all tactical asset allocation funds (Core, Asset Allocation and Global). We view this as a longer-term position.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
We continue to have longer term concerns about U.S. debt and deficit. The mountain of debt is building and interest expense rising.
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010 (+3.2%); Higher PPI Inflation (+6.0%)
Popularity, Agreement, And Trust: A Global Perspective Of Investor Preference
Analysts are playing an increasingly important role in today’s market. In this section, we focus on the market’s interpretation of three characteristics related to analysts estimates: Popularity, Agreement, and Trust.
Profit Margins At The Sector Level
This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a look at Q4 profit margins across the 10 broad economic sectors. Best looking is Information Technology, while Consumer groups have also seen impressive gains by becoming lean and mean.
Rising Interest Rates Don’t Prohibit Rising Stock Prices
Expect stock prices and interest rates to move higher together for a while. There are plenty of examples of this historically...although some of them go waaayyyy back.
Thoughts On China Investing: Domestic Consumption Versus Infrastructure Play
Jun Zhu makes a compelling case for focusing China equity exposure on consumer stocks. Increases in bank “Required Reserves” mandated by China government will have greater impact on Infrastructure stocks, while consumerism is still being supported and encouraged.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- First Year In The Books… And Still Bullish
- Giving Bonds Short Shrift
- Commodities… And The “Old Normal”?
- Rising Interest Rates Don’t Prohibit Rising Stock Prices
- Thoughts On China Investing: Domestic Consumption Versus Infrastructure Play
- Popularity, Agreement, And Trust: A Global Perspective Of Investor Preference
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
Adding Deep Value—A Bet On “Growth At Reasonable Price”
Within Select Industries Portfolio, Diversified Financial Services equity group has been de-activated, and is being replaced by a screen-based quantitative theme called Deep Value. This is essentially a GARP type screen.
Commodities… And The “Old Normal”?
A loss in leadership by commodity-oriented stocks could be the big surprise for 2010. Commodity sentiment is elevated, and the sector should feel the after-effects of a capacity building binge from late last decade. Rising inflation—if it’s the monetary debasement variety—won’t lift the sector.
First Year In The Books… And Still Bullish
Global bull market is now one year old. U.S. stocks are probably in fair value territory, but should move to moderately overvalued territory as both the economy and investor sentiment improve.
Giving Bonds Short Shrift
At the end of November, The Leuthold Group established a 7% short position in long-term Treasury bonds across all tactical asset allocation funds (Core, Asset Allocation and Global). We view this as a longer-term position.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
We continue to have longer term concerns about U.S. debt and deficit. The mountain of debt is building and interest expense rising.
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010 (+3.2%); Higher PPI Inflation (+6.0%)
Popularity, Agreement, And Trust: A Global Perspective Of Investor Preference
Analysts are playing an increasingly important role in today’s market. In this section, we focus on the market’s interpretation of three characteristics related to analysts estimates: Popularity, Agreement, and Trust.
Profit Margins At The Sector Level
This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a look at Q4 profit margins across the 10 broad economic sectors. Best looking is Information Technology, while Consumer groups have also seen impressive gains by becoming lean and mean.
Rising Interest Rates Don’t Prohibit Rising Stock Prices
Expect stock prices and interest rates to move higher together for a while. There are plenty of examples of this historically...although some of them go waaayyyy back.
Thoughts On China Investing: Domestic Consumption Versus Infrastructure Play
Jun Zhu makes a compelling case for focusing China equity exposure on consumer stocks. Increases in bank “Required Reserves” mandated by China government will have greater impact on Infrastructure stocks, while consumerism is still being supported and encouraged.
Stock Market
- First Year In The Books… And Still Bullish
- Giving Bonds Short Shrift
- Commodities… And The “Old Normal”?
- Rising Interest Rates Don’t Prohibit Rising Stock Prices
- Thoughts On China Investing: Domestic Consumption Versus Infrastructure Play
- Popularity, Agreement, And Trust: A Global Perspective Of Investor Preference
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
