Green Book October 2010
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Featured Articles
Back Aboard The Bull
Major Trend Index now Positive (both global and domestic). Even though we are bullish, there are several bullish arguments that we still don’t buy.
Beware The Economic Ticker Tape
It has become more and more difficult to filter out the short term economic noise. By focusing on this minutia, investors can easily lose sight of the big picture.
Housing Hangover: May Linger Longer Than You Think
Housing stocks, and the enablers that helped create the bubble (Financials), are following the usual pattern of busted bubbles. After the bust, these past bubbles typically see a beta bounce establishing post crash highs. After that, it can take many years before these highs are again broken.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
The kneejerk reaction to worries about excessive sovereign debt has been to bail out of the European sovereign debt and pile into U.S. sovereign debt. Unless the U.S. can get its own fiscal act together, we may face this same panic reaction farther down the road.
Mild Inflation, But No Deflation In 2010
We are maintaining our 2010 CPI estimate of +1.2%. (Core CPI +0.9%.)
Mining An Over-Correlated Stock Market
Correlations between asset classes have been running quite high over the last couple of years. Eric Bjorgen looks at current tightly correlated sectors that historically have not been so correlated.
Playing The Bounce Strategy 2010: Individual Stocks and Equity Groups
“Playing The Bounce” season is once again upon us. This is a tactical trading strategy designed to identify beaten-down stocks which come under heavy selling pressure at year end. When selling abates, stocks tend to “bounce.”
Revisiting Value & Momentum: Sign Of A Top?
Relationship of Momentum stocks and Value stocks has historically demonstrated that at market tops, Momentum does best while Value lags. That pattern is occurring now, but based on prior history the top would not come until Q1 2011.
Slowly Righting The Ship Of Risk And Reward
Stock/bond Risk-reward relationship beginning to return to normal. Back in Q1 2009, performance differential between S&P 500 and 10 year T-bonds was at generational lows. In prior periods of bond superiority, stocks ultimately came soaring back. Expect to see stocks do much better over next 5 years.
Thoughts On Asia Investing: Performance & Valuation of Consumer Stocks
A look at Asian valuations show China to be fairly valued (neither overvalued nor undervalued), but there are other attractive (cheap) ways to play consumer stocks in Asia.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Back Aboard The Bull
- Beware The Economic Ticker Tape
- Housing Hangover: May Linger Longer Than You Think
- Mining An Over-Correlated Stock Market
- Slowly Righting The Ship Of Risk And Reward
- Thoughts On Asia Investing: Performance & Valuation of Consumer Stocks
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Quant
Inflation Watch
Back Aboard The Bull
Major Trend Index now Positive (both global and domestic). Even though we are bullish, there are several bullish arguments that we still don’t buy.
Beware The Economic Ticker Tape
It has become more and more difficult to filter out the short term economic noise. By focusing on this minutia, investors can easily lose sight of the big picture.
Housing Hangover: May Linger Longer Than You Think
Housing stocks, and the enablers that helped create the bubble (Financials), are following the usual pattern of busted bubbles. After the bust, these past bubbles typically see a beta bounce establishing post crash highs. After that, it can take many years before these highs are again broken.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
The kneejerk reaction to worries about excessive sovereign debt has been to bail out of the European sovereign debt and pile into U.S. sovereign debt. Unless the U.S. can get its own fiscal act together, we may face this same panic reaction farther down the road.
Mild Inflation, But No Deflation In 2010
We are maintaining our 2010 CPI estimate of +1.2%. (Core CPI +0.9%.)
Mining An Over-Correlated Stock Market
Correlations between asset classes have been running quite high over the last couple of years. Eric Bjorgen looks at current tightly correlated sectors that historically have not been so correlated.
Playing The Bounce Strategy 2010: Individual Stocks and Equity Groups
“Playing The Bounce” season is once again upon us. This is a tactical trading strategy designed to identify beaten-down stocks which come under heavy selling pressure at year end. When selling abates, stocks tend to “bounce.”
Revisiting Value & Momentum: Sign Of A Top?
Relationship of Momentum stocks and Value stocks has historically demonstrated that at market tops, Momentum does best while Value lags. That pattern is occurring now, but based on prior history the top would not come until Q1 2011.
Slowly Righting The Ship Of Risk And Reward
Stock/bond Risk-reward relationship beginning to return to normal. Back in Q1 2009, performance differential between S&P 500 and 10 year T-bonds was at generational lows. In prior periods of bond superiority, stocks ultimately came soaring back. Expect to see stocks do much better over next 5 years.
Thoughts On Asia Investing: Performance & Valuation of Consumer Stocks
A look at Asian valuations show China to be fairly valued (neither overvalued nor undervalued), but there are other attractive (cheap) ways to play consumer stocks in Asia.
Stock Market
- Back Aboard The Bull
- Beware The Economic Ticker Tape
- Housing Hangover: May Linger Longer Than You Think
- Mining An Over-Correlated Stock Market
- Slowly Righting The Ship Of Risk And Reward
- Thoughts On Asia Investing: Performance & Valuation of Consumer Stocks
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Quant
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
