Green Book January 2020
A New Year, Or A Blast From The Past?
It was during the very first days of the great 2019 market rally that we noted its similarities to the bubbliest of all the bubble years—1999.
Wow. We had it in our hands and frittered it away.
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Featured Articles
A Blast From The Past
With 2020 representing The Leuthold Group’s 40th year of publishing Perception For The Professional, we perused the first few Green Books for relevant nuggets from 1981, but the backdrop could not have been more different. Therefore, we instead turned the clock back 20 years, thinking it might yield insights more resonant with today’s environment.
Charts Are In The Eye Of The Beholder
After last year’s 30% S&P 500 gain, many strategists are now suggesting that the real melt-up still lies ahead. We think a melt-up has already occurred, and the bulk of it has been booked.
The Decade Of U.S. Exceptionalism & The Year Ahead
Two words sum up the past decade pretty nicely: U.S. Exceptionalism. The superiority of U.S. assets really comes down to the unique combination of growth (U.S. stocks), yield (U.S. bonds), and relative safety (both U.S. stocks and bonds).
Preview: Small Caps—Part 2
In response to client queries, we extended our research of small cap equities from last month. One angle we pursued was the relationship between small caps, quality, and business risk. The full report will be released mid-month.
Industry Returns: The Decade’s Winners & Losers
This “decade in review” edition examines the performance of sectors and industries, looking at the best and worst groups to reveal the stories they have to tell.
The Factor Of The Decade Is... Sales Stability?
During a decade characterized by surging equity markets and the proliferation of smart beta products, the best performing quantitative factor was Sales Stability, which isn’t usually associated with either of those trends.
Are Earnings Set To “Gap” Higher?
We are troubled that the bullish optimism has spilled over into the 2020 estimates for S&P 500 earnings. Zero growth in 2020 is probably not a bad guess for NIPA figures, but S&P numbers don’t always follow suit.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- A New Year, Or A Blast From The Past?
- A Blast From The Past
- A Spectacularly Average Thirty Years
- Charts Are In The Eye Of The Beholder
- Waiting For The Stimulus To Trickle Down...
- Stocks And GDP
- It’s Not What They Borrowed, But How They Used It
- Are Earnings Set To “Gap” Higher?
- Inflation: Not “If,” But “Where”
- A Good Year To “Own It All”
- Rewarding “Perfect Foresight”
- Momentum Across Asset Classes
- Bridesmaid Track Record
- Bridesmaid Strategy Risk And Reward
- Bridesmaid Strategy For Equity Managers
- Sector Bridesmaid Track Record
- For Value Investors Only!
- Low P/E Track Record
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- The Decade Of U.S. Exceptionalism & The Year Ahead
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
A Blast From The Past
With 2020 representing The Leuthold Group’s 40th year of publishing Perception For The Professional, we perused the first few Green Books for relevant nuggets from 1981, but the backdrop could not have been more different. Therefore, we instead turned the clock back 20 years, thinking it might yield insights more resonant with today’s environment.
Charts Are In The Eye Of The Beholder
After last year’s 30% S&P 500 gain, many strategists are now suggesting that the real melt-up still lies ahead. We think a melt-up has already occurred, and the bulk of it has been booked.
The Decade Of U.S. Exceptionalism & The Year Ahead
Two words sum up the past decade pretty nicely: U.S. Exceptionalism. The superiority of U.S. assets really comes down to the unique combination of growth (U.S. stocks), yield (U.S. bonds), and relative safety (both U.S. stocks and bonds).
Preview: Small Caps—Part 2
In response to client queries, we extended our research of small cap equities from last month. One angle we pursued was the relationship between small caps, quality, and business risk. The full report will be released mid-month.
Industry Returns: The Decade’s Winners & Losers
This “decade in review” edition examines the performance of sectors and industries, looking at the best and worst groups to reveal the stories they have to tell.
The Factor Of The Decade Is... Sales Stability?
During a decade characterized by surging equity markets and the proliferation of smart beta products, the best performing quantitative factor was Sales Stability, which isn’t usually associated with either of those trends.
Are Earnings Set To “Gap” Higher?
We are troubled that the bullish optimism has spilled over into the 2020 estimates for S&P 500 earnings. Zero growth in 2020 is probably not a bad guess for NIPA figures, but S&P numbers don’t always follow suit.
Stock Market
- A New Year, Or A Blast From The Past?
- A Blast From The Past
- A Spectacularly Average Thirty Years
- Charts Are In The Eye Of The Beholder
- Waiting For The Stimulus To Trickle Down...
- Stocks And GDP
- It’s Not What They Borrowed, But How They Used It
- Are Earnings Set To “Gap” Higher?
- Inflation: Not “If,” But “Where”
- A Good Year To “Own It All”
- Rewarding “Perfect Foresight”
- Momentum Across Asset Classes
- Bridesmaid Track Record
- Bridesmaid Strategy Risk And Reward
- Bridesmaid Strategy For Equity Managers
- Sector Bridesmaid Track Record
- For Value Investors Only!
- Low P/E Track Record
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- The Decade Of U.S. Exceptionalism & The Year Ahead
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
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