Green Book June 2009
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Featured Articles
A Second Opinion On Secondaries… Increased Supply Can Be Bullish
After an uneventful start in 2009, deal flow for equity financings has jumped to life in recent weeks.
All In
VLT Momentum measures shifted to buy signals based on May 29th market close. These are low risk signals, which by definition are confirmation of longer term sustainable bull market moves.
Bulls In The China Shop… How and Why We Are Increasing Exposure To Asia
In mid May, 4% of assets were shifted from U.S. stocks to Emerging Market holdings, buying a package of individual Asian stocks. This same package is being used to boost exposure to 70% in early June.
Expect Foreign Stocks to Continue to Outperform U.S. Stocks in this Bull Market
Superior performance of foreign stocks of late is likely only the preamble to what the rest of the cyclical bull market will look like.
Expect To See Rising CPI/PPI Inflation As Economy Recovers
As the global economy recovers in 2010, we expect the PPI twelve month rate to accelerate to +5% as commodity prices continue to rise.
Mutual Fund Flow Trends...Some Encouraging, Some Troubling....
Starting to see some modest inflow into U.S. focus equity mutual funds, which is a stock market positive.
New Group Holding In Diversified Financial Services
Establishing a new Select Industries equity holding in the Diversified Financial Services group as a 7.7% holding. This is first Financial sector exposure since August 2008, but the portfolio continues to be significantly underweight in this broad sector.
Raising Longer Maturity U.S. Treasury Twelve Month Interest Rate Targets
Jim Floyd is boosting his 12 month interest rate targets by about 50 basis points across the board. The economy is expected to be showing signs of recovery by year end 2009, and the credit markets are thawing.
Taking A Closer Look At S&P 500 Valuations
Valuation metrics using S&P 500 aggregate earnings can be skewed by large losses. Building a profile of valuations by looking at median valuations, or the distribution of valuations, can be helpful to avoid this problem.
Warming Up To Gold
One might have expected gold and gold stocks to stumble as investors abandoned their defensive postures. However, spot gold and gold stocks (on a relative basis) are threatening to break out to new highs.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- All In
- Bulls In The China Shop… How and Why We Are Increasing Exposure To Asia
- Warming Up To Gold
- A Second Opinion On Secondaries… Increased Supply Can Be Bullish
- Mutual Fund Flow Trends...Some Encouraging, Some Troubling....
- Taking A Closer Look At S&P 500 Valuations
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
A Second Opinion On Secondaries… Increased Supply Can Be Bullish
After an uneventful start in 2009, deal flow for equity financings has jumped to life in recent weeks.
All In
VLT Momentum measures shifted to buy signals based on May 29th market close. These are low risk signals, which by definition are confirmation of longer term sustainable bull market moves.
Bulls In The China Shop… How and Why We Are Increasing Exposure To Asia
In mid May, 4% of assets were shifted from U.S. stocks to Emerging Market holdings, buying a package of individual Asian stocks. This same package is being used to boost exposure to 70% in early June.
Expect Foreign Stocks to Continue to Outperform U.S. Stocks in this Bull Market
Superior performance of foreign stocks of late is likely only the preamble to what the rest of the cyclical bull market will look like.
Expect To See Rising CPI/PPI Inflation As Economy Recovers
As the global economy recovers in 2010, we expect the PPI twelve month rate to accelerate to +5% as commodity prices continue to rise.
Mutual Fund Flow Trends...Some Encouraging, Some Troubling....
Starting to see some modest inflow into U.S. focus equity mutual funds, which is a stock market positive.
New Group Holding In Diversified Financial Services
Establishing a new Select Industries equity holding in the Diversified Financial Services group as a 7.7% holding. This is first Financial sector exposure since August 2008, but the portfolio continues to be significantly underweight in this broad sector.
Raising Longer Maturity U.S. Treasury Twelve Month Interest Rate Targets
Jim Floyd is boosting his 12 month interest rate targets by about 50 basis points across the board. The economy is expected to be showing signs of recovery by year end 2009, and the credit markets are thawing.
Taking A Closer Look At S&P 500 Valuations
Valuation metrics using S&P 500 aggregate earnings can be skewed by large losses. Building a profile of valuations by looking at median valuations, or the distribution of valuations, can be helpful to avoid this problem.
Warming Up To Gold
One might have expected gold and gold stocks to stumble as investors abandoned their defensive postures. However, spot gold and gold stocks (on a relative basis) are threatening to break out to new highs.
Stock Market
- All In
- Bulls In The China Shop… How and Why We Are Increasing Exposure To Asia
- Warming Up To Gold
- A Second Opinion On Secondaries… Increased Supply Can Be Bullish
- Mutual Fund Flow Trends...Some Encouraging, Some Troubling....
- Taking A Closer Look At S&P 500 Valuations
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
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