Green Book December 2013
A Great Year Ends With A Whimper? New Highs In Early 2014?
The cyclical bull market is approaching its fifth birthday. Should you be nervous? Yes, but not so much because of its age.
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Featured Articles
High Quality Stocks Rally Back
Stocks with High Quality rankings have outperformed those with Low Quality rankings for the past few months. The junk rally is at or near an end, and investors may want to shift their attention to High Quality stocks.
The Bull In Historical Context
The cyclical bull market is approaching its fifth birthday. Should you be nervous? Yes, but not so much because of its age.
2013 Factor Performance: What Worked? What Will Keep Working?
Momentum and Value worked in 2013. Materials and Financials were the easiest sectors to exploit; Discretionary and Tech the most difficult. Momentum works in December; Value and Small Caps at the start of the year.
Broad Themes Found In Auto & Insurance Industries
We like when we can find groups inside of broad themes, and these two industries are amongst the strongest in our work right now.
The Stealthy Move In Health Care
Among the few things untouched by the Obamacare rollout are the rising relative strength patterns of most health care stocks.
Education Services Topping Domestic Group Scores
These stocks have been beaten down extensively over the past four years, but they finally appear to be on the road to recovery.
2013’s Fund Flow Trends Have Room To Run
Year-to-date, equity funds are cash on par with those of the 2000 tech bubble, while bond mutual funds are experiencing net cash outflows for the first time in a decade.
Implications Of Increased Access To Chinese A-Shares
There are signs the domestic Chinese market may be more accessible to global investors sooner than most think. We explore the implications of these potential changes.
The Dual Mandate Presents A Clear Dilemma For The Fed
The “dual mandate,” which means the Fed is paying close attention to both inflation and employment, presents a clear dilemma for the Fed when it comes time to decide on a taper.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Last Target Standing?
- A Quick Technical Take
- The Bull In Historical Context
- Valuing The “Typical” Stock
- Finding Value In “Forward Earnings”
- The Mundane Truth Behind Margins
- Stocks And The Dismal Science
- High Quality Stocks Rally Back
- 2013’s Fund Flow Trends Have Room To Run
- Implications Of Increased Access To Chinese A-Shares
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- The Dual Mandate Presents A Clear Dilemma For The Fed
- 10-Year: No December Taper, Back To The 250 Level
- Risk Aversion Index Edges Lower, Stays On Its “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bond Grades
Equity Strategies
- Broad Themes Found In Auto & Insurance Industries
- The Stealthy Move In Health Care
- Education Services Topping Domestic Group Scores
Market Internals
- Earning Momentum
- Small/Mid/Large Cap Internals
- Growth/Value/Cyclicals Market Internals
- S&P 500: Cap Weighted Outperforms For The Second Month In A Row
- Dissecting The Capital Tier Indices
Portfolios
- Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Raised Slightly As Hedge Reduced
- Long Only Portfolios See Low Turnover
- Short Portfolios: Both Portfolios Outperform Benchmarks
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
High Quality Stocks Rally Back
Stocks with High Quality rankings have outperformed those with Low Quality rankings for the past few months. The junk rally is at or near an end, and investors may want to shift their attention to High Quality stocks.
The Bull In Historical Context
The cyclical bull market is approaching its fifth birthday. Should you be nervous? Yes, but not so much because of its age.
2013 Factor Performance: What Worked? What Will Keep Working?
Momentum and Value worked in 2013. Materials and Financials were the easiest sectors to exploit; Discretionary and Tech the most difficult. Momentum works in December; Value and Small Caps at the start of the year.
Broad Themes Found In Auto & Insurance Industries
We like when we can find groups inside of broad themes, and these two industries are amongst the strongest in our work right now.
The Stealthy Move In Health Care
Among the few things untouched by the Obamacare rollout are the rising relative strength patterns of most health care stocks.
Education Services Topping Domestic Group Scores
These stocks have been beaten down extensively over the past four years, but they finally appear to be on the road to recovery.
2013’s Fund Flow Trends Have Room To Run
Year-to-date, equity funds are cash on par with those of the 2000 tech bubble, while bond mutual funds are experiencing net cash outflows for the first time in a decade.
Implications Of Increased Access To Chinese A-Shares
There are signs the domestic Chinese market may be more accessible to global investors sooner than most think. We explore the implications of these potential changes.
The Dual Mandate Presents A Clear Dilemma For The Fed
The “dual mandate,” which means the Fed is paying close attention to both inflation and employment, presents a clear dilemma for the Fed when it comes time to decide on a taper.
Stock Market
- Last Target Standing?
- A Quick Technical Take
- The Bull In Historical Context
- Valuing The “Typical” Stock
- Finding Value In “Forward Earnings”
- The Mundane Truth Behind Margins
- Stocks And The Dismal Science
- High Quality Stocks Rally Back
- 2013’s Fund Flow Trends Have Room To Run
- Implications Of Increased Access To Chinese A-Shares
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- The Dual Mandate Presents A Clear Dilemma For The Fed
- 10-Year: No December Taper, Back To The 250 Level
- Risk Aversion Index Edges Lower, Stays On Its “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bond Grades
Equity Strategies
- Broad Themes Found In Auto & Insurance Industries
- The Stealthy Move In Health Care
- Education Services Topping Domestic Group Scores
Market Internals
- Earning Momentum
- Small/Mid/Large Cap Internals
- Growth/Value/Cyclicals Market Internals
- S&P 500: Cap Weighted Outperforms For The Second Month In A Row
- Dissecting The Capital Tier Indices
Portfolios
- Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Raised Slightly As Hedge Reduced
- Long Only Portfolios See Low Turnover
- Short Portfolios: Both Portfolios Outperform Benchmarks
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
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