Green Book March 2015
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Featured Articles
The Bull Market Turns Six
The bull’s 72-month lifespan now rates as the fourth-longest among all 23 DJIA bull markets since 1900, and the cumulative price gain of +179% ranks sixth.
Bullish, But Still Worried
Our longer-term bear market forecast and a temporarily positive stock market stance aren’t mutually exclusive.
New Laggards On The Radar Screen
Transports now find themselves in a three-month RS downtrend; it’s too early to tell if this is an important message. Leading up to 14 of the last 16 bull market tops, Transports underperformed for a six to 12-month period prior to the final bull market high.
Deflation…. What If [It Lingers]?
Can a deflationary outlook coincide with a bullish stance on equity markets? The short answer: YES. Periods of more commonly experienced mild deflation have actually coincided with above average stock returns, especially when deflation occurs outside of a recession.
Inflation & Monetary Policy—A Feedback Loop
Inflation and inflation expectations are key inputs to central banks’ policy decision process. Divergent policies have very different impacts on inflation.
Our Most Contrarian Group Ideas
Using “Analyst Score” to measure sentiment and our Group Selection (GS) Scores, we present what appear to be the most quantitatively Attractive, yet disliked equity groups.
Global Electronic Payment Systems: An Update
Performance of this thematic group has been strong but the domestic Big Four networks are facing increasing competition overseas. However, there is still a much better growth profile compared to many other industries.
Paper Industry: Global Trade Headwind
Lower energy prices will benefit the paper industry as it is among the most energy intensive of Materials groups. Yet, global implications may produce a headwind, offsetting the benefit of lower oil costs.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Another Upleg?
- The Bull Market Turns Six
- Bullish, But Still Worried
- New Laggards On The Radar Screen
- Still More Bull Market Milestones…
- NASDAQ Now, Financials Next?
- Margin Debt Revisited
- A Quick Check On Global Fundamentals
- Simple Monetary Gauge Still Bullish
- Apple: Back In The Club!
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- U.S. 10-Year: Looking For A Follow-Through
- Inflation & Monetary Policy—A Feedback Loop
- Risk Aversion Index—Fell Sharply But Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Our Most Contrarian Group Ideas
- Global Electronic Payment Systems: An Update
- Paper Industry: Global Trade Headwind
- Selected Attractive Groups
Quant
Market Internals
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
The Bull Market Turns Six
The bull’s 72-month lifespan now rates as the fourth-longest among all 23 DJIA bull markets since 1900, and the cumulative price gain of +179% ranks sixth.
Bullish, But Still Worried
Our longer-term bear market forecast and a temporarily positive stock market stance aren’t mutually exclusive.
New Laggards On The Radar Screen
Transports now find themselves in a three-month RS downtrend; it’s too early to tell if this is an important message. Leading up to 14 of the last 16 bull market tops, Transports underperformed for a six to 12-month period prior to the final bull market high.
Deflation…. What If [It Lingers]?
Can a deflationary outlook coincide with a bullish stance on equity markets? The short answer: YES. Periods of more commonly experienced mild deflation have actually coincided with above average stock returns, especially when deflation occurs outside of a recession.
Inflation & Monetary Policy—A Feedback Loop
Inflation and inflation expectations are key inputs to central banks’ policy decision process. Divergent policies have very different impacts on inflation.
Our Most Contrarian Group Ideas
Using “Analyst Score” to measure sentiment and our Group Selection (GS) Scores, we present what appear to be the most quantitatively Attractive, yet disliked equity groups.
Global Electronic Payment Systems: An Update
Performance of this thematic group has been strong but the domestic Big Four networks are facing increasing competition overseas. However, there is still a much better growth profile compared to many other industries.
Paper Industry: Global Trade Headwind
Lower energy prices will benefit the paper industry as it is among the most energy intensive of Materials groups. Yet, global implications may produce a headwind, offsetting the benefit of lower oil costs.
Stock Market
- Another Upleg?
- The Bull Market Turns Six
- Bullish, But Still Worried
- New Laggards On The Radar Screen
- Still More Bull Market Milestones…
- NASDAQ Now, Financials Next?
- Margin Debt Revisited
- A Quick Check On Global Fundamentals
- Simple Monetary Gauge Still Bullish
- Apple: Back In The Club!
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- U.S. 10-Year: Looking For A Follow-Through
- Inflation & Monetary Policy—A Feedback Loop
- Risk Aversion Index—Fell Sharply But Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Our Most Contrarian Group Ideas
- Global Electronic Payment Systems: An Update
- Paper Industry: Global Trade Headwind
- Selected Attractive Groups
Quant
Market Internals
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
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