Green Book April 1991
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Featured Articles
Block Sellers Dominate Insider Trading Activity
In the report released on March 27, we witnessed the single largest number of block sales over the history of our work which dates back to 1982.
Bond Market Summary
In March, the fixed income markets were a mixed bag. Short term rates fell 25 basis points and 90 day bills ended the month well below 6% (5.74%). Junk bonds extended their sharp February rally. Outside of short term rates and junk bonds, the fixed income markets recorded little net change in March.
How High Is High?
The Leuthold Group’s Intrinsic Value Benchmarks provides another way of estimating upside potential for the DJIA and S&P 500. Based on the past history of bull market valuation levels, where might the stock market be 12 months from now?
Joke of the Month
For the first time in the history of the competition we have a tie. Duplicate prizes will be awarded to Carl Hallen at Duke Endowment and John McGinley of Technical Trends in Wilton, Connecticut.
Major Trend Index Once Again Improves
The S&P 500 and DJIA stalled in March, with a rebound in the last week of the month providing the modest 1%-2% gains. Among The Leuthold Group’s 62 equity sectors, 40 (65%) beat the S&P in March. Yes, it was another good month for active managers.
Playing the Bounce Update
This has been a vintage “bounce” period, perhaps the best ever! We know that some of our smarter clients did play this game. The following section is a monitor for those fortunate and gutsy few.
Polling the Pros
Recognizing the obvious client interest in the market views of other professionals, we are initiating “Polling the Pros”. Whenever we have a significant number of investment professionals gathered together, we will ask their stock market opinion via a ballot. So now when you ask us what Leuthold clients think of the market we will no longer have to wing it.
Scanning the Markets: The First Quarter
A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by March 1991 performance - 62% of our sectors beat the S&P 500.
The Dollar, the D Mark and German Bunds
This month, the Conventional Asset Allocation Model has added to its holdings of German government bunds, taking them up to 18% of the model’s assets. Normally this would be a subject for this publication’s “Foreign Investments” section. However, the considerations involved in making this investment decision should be of broader client interest.
View from the North Country
The worst may be over for New England real estate and the prospects of another major banking crisis smashing the bank stocks have greatly diminished. Thus, in this issue, we are no longer waiting for the “other shoe to drop” and are selectively adding to our bank stock holdings.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Once Again Improves
- How High Is High?
- Block Sellers Dominate Insider Trading Activity
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Block Sellers Dominate Insider Trading Activity
In the report released on March 27, we witnessed the single largest number of block sales over the history of our work which dates back to 1982.
Bond Market Summary
In March, the fixed income markets were a mixed bag. Short term rates fell 25 basis points and 90 day bills ended the month well below 6% (5.74%). Junk bonds extended their sharp February rally. Outside of short term rates and junk bonds, the fixed income markets recorded little net change in March.
How High Is High?
The Leuthold Group’s Intrinsic Value Benchmarks provides another way of estimating upside potential for the DJIA and S&P 500. Based on the past history of bull market valuation levels, where might the stock market be 12 months from now?
Joke of the Month
For the first time in the history of the competition we have a tie. Duplicate prizes will be awarded to Carl Hallen at Duke Endowment and John McGinley of Technical Trends in Wilton, Connecticut.
Major Trend Index Once Again Improves
The S&P 500 and DJIA stalled in March, with a rebound in the last week of the month providing the modest 1%-2% gains. Among The Leuthold Group’s 62 equity sectors, 40 (65%) beat the S&P in March. Yes, it was another good month for active managers.
Playing the Bounce Update
This has been a vintage “bounce” period, perhaps the best ever! We know that some of our smarter clients did play this game. The following section is a monitor for those fortunate and gutsy few.
Polling the Pros
Recognizing the obvious client interest in the market views of other professionals, we are initiating “Polling the Pros”. Whenever we have a significant number of investment professionals gathered together, we will ask their stock market opinion via a ballot. So now when you ask us what Leuthold clients think of the market we will no longer have to wing it.
Scanning the Markets: The First Quarter
A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by March 1991 performance - 62% of our sectors beat the S&P 500.
The Dollar, the D Mark and German Bunds
This month, the Conventional Asset Allocation Model has added to its holdings of German government bunds, taking them up to 18% of the model’s assets. Normally this would be a subject for this publication’s “Foreign Investments” section. However, the considerations involved in making this investment decision should be of broader client interest.
View from the North Country
The worst may be over for New England real estate and the prospects of another major banking crisis smashing the bank stocks have greatly diminished. Thus, in this issue, we are no longer waiting for the “other shoe to drop” and are selectively adding to our bank stock holdings.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Once Again Improves
- How High Is High?
- Block Sellers Dominate Insider Trading Activity
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
