Green Book February 2007
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Featured Articles
2007 Outlook: CPI Tame First Half With Moderate Economic Growth
We believe interest rates are headed higher in 2007. Economy picked up some in Q4. Bond market sentiment still looks too optimistic.
A Long-Term Look At Short Interest
To supplement our traditional short interest models, we have developed a long-term, normalized measure of short interest that is intended to “self-adapt” to the institutional changes unfolding in short selling.
CAPEX Is Slowing: Which industries still stand to benefit—and which ones are in trouble?
We dig deeper into the capital spending data to determine which industries still could benefit from recent CAPEX trends and which ones are likely to get hurt.
Inflation Trends Are A Mixed Bag
Twelve month rates of change for both CPI and PPI have been trending down over the past fifteen months, and seem to be less of an immediate threat. But, the Core CPI seems to be in an uptrend.
January Market Action
The U.S. stock market continued to track higher during the first month of the year, despite the fact that individual investors continued to watch from the sidelines.
Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Falls Flat In January
The $4.1 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds is clearly indicating that Main Street investors are entering 2007 with a cautious outlook for the U.S. stock market.
Outlook For Energy
A look at the GS Scores for the broad Energy sector in light of the recent decline in crude oil prices. Today, only one of the Energy related groups is rated Attractive, while 3 are Neutral and 3 Unattractive.
Perfect Conditions For LBOs…..Implications As An Investment Theme
Relatively low interest rates combined with strong earnings growth and a build up of corporate cash has created a perfect environment for LBOs. Jim Floyd created a quantitative screen back in February 2006 that attempts to uncover the most attractive LBO stocks.
Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Losing Steam...Exit Strategy In Progress
This year’s Bounce faded in December and January, reversing what looked to be an excellent bounce season to just a “so-so” one.
S&P 400 Mid Cap: An Easy Benchmark To Beat In 2006
The S&P 400 Mid Cap index had a tough year in 2006. On the other hand, The Leuthold Group’s Mid Cap Index did very well, up 21% in 2006.
View From The North Country
Doug Ramsey steps in as guest commentator in this month’s “View From The North Country” to highlight what we currently see as the bullish arguments for the stock market and contrast those with the bearish arguments.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- January Market Action
- Outlook For Energy
- Perfect Conditions For LBOs…..Implications As An Investment Theme
- A Long-Term Look At Short Interest
- Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Losing Steam...Exit Strategy In Progress
- S&P 400 Mid Cap: An Easy Benchmark To Beat In 2006
- Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Falls Flat In January
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
2007 Outlook: CPI Tame First Half With Moderate Economic Growth
We believe interest rates are headed higher in 2007. Economy picked up some in Q4. Bond market sentiment still looks too optimistic.
A Long-Term Look At Short Interest
To supplement our traditional short interest models, we have developed a long-term, normalized measure of short interest that is intended to “self-adapt” to the institutional changes unfolding in short selling.
CAPEX Is Slowing: Which industries still stand to benefit—and which ones are in trouble?
We dig deeper into the capital spending data to determine which industries still could benefit from recent CAPEX trends and which ones are likely to get hurt.
Inflation Trends Are A Mixed Bag
Twelve month rates of change for both CPI and PPI have been trending down over the past fifteen months, and seem to be less of an immediate threat. But, the Core CPI seems to be in an uptrend.
January Market Action
The U.S. stock market continued to track higher during the first month of the year, despite the fact that individual investors continued to watch from the sidelines.
Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Falls Flat In January
The $4.1 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds is clearly indicating that Main Street investors are entering 2007 with a cautious outlook for the U.S. stock market.
Outlook For Energy
A look at the GS Scores for the broad Energy sector in light of the recent decline in crude oil prices. Today, only one of the Energy related groups is rated Attractive, while 3 are Neutral and 3 Unattractive.
Perfect Conditions For LBOs…..Implications As An Investment Theme
Relatively low interest rates combined with strong earnings growth and a build up of corporate cash has created a perfect environment for LBOs. Jim Floyd created a quantitative screen back in February 2006 that attempts to uncover the most attractive LBO stocks.
Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Losing Steam...Exit Strategy In Progress
This year’s Bounce faded in December and January, reversing what looked to be an excellent bounce season to just a “so-so” one.
S&P 400 Mid Cap: An Easy Benchmark To Beat In 2006
The S&P 400 Mid Cap index had a tough year in 2006. On the other hand, The Leuthold Group’s Mid Cap Index did very well, up 21% in 2006.
View From The North Country
Doug Ramsey steps in as guest commentator in this month’s “View From The North Country” to highlight what we currently see as the bullish arguments for the stock market and contrast those with the bearish arguments.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- January Market Action
- Outlook For Energy
- Perfect Conditions For LBOs…..Implications As An Investment Theme
- A Long-Term Look At Short Interest
- Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Losing Steam...Exit Strategy In Progress
- S&P 400 Mid Cap: An Easy Benchmark To Beat In 2006
- Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Falls Flat In January
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
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