Green Book October 2022
Roaring Good Times...
Boy, were the pundits ever right about the Roaring Twenties. Less than three years into the decade, the animal they fear most has already roared two times. Actually, the first one, in the first quarter of 2020, was more like a piercing “yap,” taking the S&P 500 down almost 34% in just 23 trading days. The second roar has been a deeper, more guttural one that’s lasted nine months and is probably not done.
Login
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Not a Subscriber?
If you are interested in subscribing to The Leuthold Group, contact us online or give us a call at 612-332-1567.
Contact Us
Featured Articles
Powell Doesn’t Need To Be Volcker
The current bear has been no more than moderate based on conventional measurements. However, the loss of market wealth in relation to GDP is not too far from the levels suffered during the Great Financial Crisis.
A Valuation Check-Up
The P/E multiple on Trailing Peak GAAP EPS has plunged 44% from its year-ago peak of 32.5x. The current ratio of 18.1x is below its “New Era” median (1995-to-date) —but some conditions characterizing the New Era no longer apply.
Recession Dashboard Update—More Deterioration
The latest ISM Manufacturing numbers resulted in a downgrade to that factor from “green” to “yellow.” Unemployment claims is the lone component with a green light on the dashboard. Overall, the various measures we track suggest the risk of a “real” recession is high—better than 50%.
Research Preview: The 60/40 Skeptics Were Right
The 60/40 strategy is having a terrible year, and its failure to protect investors in the bear market prompted us to take a look at the history and theory of the 60/40 guideline. We offer an early preview of the study, with a focus on 2022’s abysmal year-to-date returns.
The Great British Pivot
The latest BoE and RBA pivots fueled the market’s hope that global central-bank hawkishness has possibly peaked. We believe the market is likely to be lured by the prospect of a Fed pivot in the near term, only to be disappointed as that hope fades away.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Roaring Good Times...
- Tightening Into A Slowdown: Month Eight
- Powell Doesn’t Need To Be Volcker
- Past Pivots Prompted By Politics
- No Longer An Emphatic “NOPE”
- A Valuation Check-Up
- VLT Says Stocks Are Finally Oversold
- Supercharging VLT With Small Caps
- Seasonal Nightmare Ending?
- Cash, not Charles, is Finally King
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- The Great British Pivot
- Recession Dashboard Update—More Deterioration
- Midterm Elections—Not A Typical Year
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher-Risk” Signal
Quant
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum
- Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
- Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Powell Doesn’t Need To Be Volcker
The current bear has been no more than moderate based on conventional measurements. However, the loss of market wealth in relation to GDP is not too far from the levels suffered during the Great Financial Crisis.
A Valuation Check-Up
The P/E multiple on Trailing Peak GAAP EPS has plunged 44% from its year-ago peak of 32.5x. The current ratio of 18.1x is below its “New Era” median (1995-to-date) —but some conditions characterizing the New Era no longer apply.
Recession Dashboard Update—More Deterioration
The latest ISM Manufacturing numbers resulted in a downgrade to that factor from “green” to “yellow.” Unemployment claims is the lone component with a green light on the dashboard. Overall, the various measures we track suggest the risk of a “real” recession is high—better than 50%.
Research Preview: The 60/40 Skeptics Were Right
The 60/40 strategy is having a terrible year, and its failure to protect investors in the bear market prompted us to take a look at the history and theory of the 60/40 guideline. We offer an early preview of the study, with a focus on 2022’s abysmal year-to-date returns.
The Great British Pivot
The latest BoE and RBA pivots fueled the market’s hope that global central-bank hawkishness has possibly peaked. We believe the market is likely to be lured by the prospect of a Fed pivot in the near term, only to be disappointed as that hope fades away.
Stock Market
- Roaring Good Times...
- Tightening Into A Slowdown: Month Eight
- Powell Doesn’t Need To Be Volcker
- Past Pivots Prompted By Politics
- No Longer An Emphatic “NOPE”
- A Valuation Check-Up
- VLT Says Stocks Are Finally Oversold
- Supercharging VLT With Small Caps
- Seasonal Nightmare Ending?
- Cash, not Charles, is Finally King
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- The Great British Pivot
- Recession Dashboard Update—More Deterioration
- Midterm Elections—Not A Typical Year
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher-Risk” Signal
Quant
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum
- Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
- Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
