Green Book May 2005
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Featured Articles
April Market Action
The YTD performance gap between large caps and small caps continues to widen.
Big Pharma Finally Added To Portfolio
As contrarians, we have been looking for an opportunity to establish holdings in this down and out equity group. May GS Scores finally ranked it as Attractive for the first time since July 2003.
Economic Outlook
Today, the yield curve has flattened but has not yet inverted. The economy may be in for a soft patch, but there are no signs of recession yet.
Higher Costs Starting To Pressure Margins
Looking at the last five quarters’ S&P 500 income statements.
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Continue To Suffer In April
The Industrial Metals equity group continued to sell off in April, dropping 10.5% on the heels of –6.1% return in March.
Inflation Watch: 2005 Outlook
Further U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative (higher import prices), but we are more optimistic about the dollar than most.
Mutual Fund Flows…..Net Redemptions In April For U.S. Equity Funds
This is the first month of net redemptions in eight months, the last time being the month of August 2004.
New Histogram: Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
This month, Eric Bjorgen presents a unique take on stock market valuations, by determining how many barrels of oil it takes to buy one unit of the S&P 500. Based on the historical relationship, the stock market is not overvalued versus oil.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Historical Comparisons
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
The current expansion is below the average pace of a typical expansion.
U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
U.S. market ranks as fifth most expensive market based on comparisons to 44 countries from around the world.
What To Make Of The VIX?
VIX was a hot topic in April, as investors saw the increased volatility as a sign the market was poised to rally. Our long term studies of the VIX, results in us cautioning investors about reading too much into the recent move in this volatility index.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- April Market Action
- Higher Costs Starting To Pressure Margins
- New Histogram: Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
- What To Make Of The VIX?
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Historical Comparisons
- Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
- U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
- Checking In On The Dollar
- Mutual Fund Flows…..Net Redemptions In April For U.S. Equity Funds
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Big Pharma Finally Added To Portfolio
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Continue To Suffer In April
Inflation Watch
April Market Action
The YTD performance gap between large caps and small caps continues to widen.
Big Pharma Finally Added To Portfolio
As contrarians, we have been looking for an opportunity to establish holdings in this down and out equity group. May GS Scores finally ranked it as Attractive for the first time since July 2003.
Economic Outlook
Today, the yield curve has flattened but has not yet inverted. The economy may be in for a soft patch, but there are no signs of recession yet.
Higher Costs Starting To Pressure Margins
Looking at the last five quarters’ S&P 500 income statements.
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Continue To Suffer In April
The Industrial Metals equity group continued to sell off in April, dropping 10.5% on the heels of –6.1% return in March.
Inflation Watch: 2005 Outlook
Further U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative (higher import prices), but we are more optimistic about the dollar than most.
Mutual Fund Flows…..Net Redemptions In April For U.S. Equity Funds
This is the first month of net redemptions in eight months, the last time being the month of August 2004.
New Histogram: Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
This month, Eric Bjorgen presents a unique take on stock market valuations, by determining how many barrels of oil it takes to buy one unit of the S&P 500. Based on the historical relationship, the stock market is not overvalued versus oil.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Historical Comparisons
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
The current expansion is below the average pace of a typical expansion.
U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
U.S. market ranks as fifth most expensive market based on comparisons to 44 countries from around the world.
What To Make Of The VIX?
VIX was a hot topic in April, as investors saw the increased volatility as a sign the market was poised to rally. Our long term studies of the VIX, results in us cautioning investors about reading too much into the recent move in this volatility index.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- April Market Action
- Higher Costs Starting To Pressure Margins
- New Histogram: Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
- What To Make Of The VIX?
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Historical Comparisons
- Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
- U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
- Checking In On The Dollar
- Mutual Fund Flows…..Net Redemptions In April For U.S. Equity Funds
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Big Pharma Finally Added To Portfolio
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Continue To Suffer In April
Inflation Watch
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