Green Book December 2011
Login
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Not a Subscriber?
If you are interested in subscribing to The Leuthold Group, contact us online or give us a call at 612-332-1567.
Contact Us
Featured Articles
Dreams Of What Could Have Been
Doug Ramsey previews the 2011 hypothetical “Dream Portfolio” (or perhaps, “fear” portfolio). What would the portfolio manager with perfect foresight owned at the beginning of 2011? Should one now begin or continue to invest in the components of the Dream Portfolio?
Factor Performance Remains Choppy
Factor performance continues to flip-flop, one-year correlations hit all-time high, Earnings Revisions remains the strongest factor in 2011, which prompts a deeper look.
Major Trend Index: Deteriorates To Neutral
Major Trend Index fell to Neutral in late November. Net equity exposure reduced to 51% in Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios.
Market Worrying You? Just Sleep On It!
A rather surprising discovery when comparing intraday versus overnight market price action, and perhaps a “Smart Money” buy signal revealed as well?
New General Merchandise Stores Position Initiated In Select Industries
Among a number of Consumer Discretionary groups delivering Attractive ratings this month, we found General Merchandise Stores to be the most appealing candidate.
New Health Care Technology Position Initiated In Select Industries
Health Care Technology has rated either Attractive or High Neutral for the past nine months, and it currently receives an Excellent rating in the Growth category.
New Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Position Initiated In Select Industries
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group attained one of the top GS Scores this month and has been rated Attractive for over a year now.
Nice Gains… But In The Wrong Groups
Sure looks like a bear market rally rather than start of new bull market. Many global indexes still down 20% or more from peak levels.
Playing The Bounce: New Methodology And Backtesting
A new screening methodology for Leuthold’s traditional “Playing The Bounce” screen is presented and examined.
Profit Margins: As Good As It Gets
Current record high corporate Profit Margins examined in this month’s “Of Special Interest.” Topics include the sustainability of the trend, commodities as profit trackers, margins as a potential forecasting tool and discussion on profits by sector and market cap.
Risk Aversion Edged Up - Stay Defensive And Be Patient
The Risk Aversion Index edged up during November. It is still on a “higher risk” signal. We will stay defensive and be patient. Higher quality assets within the fixed income space are favored.
Tax Rates And The Good Old Days
Top marginal tax rate of 6%...applied only to income in excess of $500,000? It was a reality in 1913!
Very Little Price Pressure At Present
It is very difficult to find signs of accelerating inflation in today’s markets.
“Just Make It Go Away”
Jim Bianco observed in September that Europe was still in a “pre-Lehman” mentality regarding its debt crisis, in which investors and policymakers “were worried more about the equity and propriety of where taxpayer money was going than about fixing the problem.”
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Dreams Of What Could Have Been
- Nice Gains… But In The Wrong Groups
- Tax Rates And The Good Old Days
- “Just Make It Go Away”
- Market Worrying You? Just Sleep On It!
- Major Trend Index: Deteriorates To Neutral
- Playing The Bounce: New Methodology And Backtesting
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Position Initiated In Select Industries
- New General Merchandise Stores Position Initiated In Select Industries
- New Health Care Technology Position Initiated In Select Industries
Quant
Inflation Watch
Dreams Of What Could Have Been
Doug Ramsey previews the 2011 hypothetical “Dream Portfolio” (or perhaps, “fear” portfolio). What would the portfolio manager with perfect foresight owned at the beginning of 2011? Should one now begin or continue to invest in the components of the Dream Portfolio?
Factor Performance Remains Choppy
Factor performance continues to flip-flop, one-year correlations hit all-time high, Earnings Revisions remains the strongest factor in 2011, which prompts a deeper look.
Major Trend Index: Deteriorates To Neutral
Major Trend Index fell to Neutral in late November. Net equity exposure reduced to 51% in Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios.
Market Worrying You? Just Sleep On It!
A rather surprising discovery when comparing intraday versus overnight market price action, and perhaps a “Smart Money” buy signal revealed as well?
New General Merchandise Stores Position Initiated In Select Industries
Among a number of Consumer Discretionary groups delivering Attractive ratings this month, we found General Merchandise Stores to be the most appealing candidate.
New Health Care Technology Position Initiated In Select Industries
Health Care Technology has rated either Attractive or High Neutral for the past nine months, and it currently receives an Excellent rating in the Growth category.
New Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Position Initiated In Select Industries
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group attained one of the top GS Scores this month and has been rated Attractive for over a year now.
Nice Gains… But In The Wrong Groups
Sure looks like a bear market rally rather than start of new bull market. Many global indexes still down 20% or more from peak levels.
Playing The Bounce: New Methodology And Backtesting
A new screening methodology for Leuthold’s traditional “Playing The Bounce” screen is presented and examined.
Profit Margins: As Good As It Gets
Current record high corporate Profit Margins examined in this month’s “Of Special Interest.” Topics include the sustainability of the trend, commodities as profit trackers, margins as a potential forecasting tool and discussion on profits by sector and market cap.
Risk Aversion Edged Up - Stay Defensive And Be Patient
The Risk Aversion Index edged up during November. It is still on a “higher risk” signal. We will stay defensive and be patient. Higher quality assets within the fixed income space are favored.
Tax Rates And The Good Old Days
Top marginal tax rate of 6%...applied only to income in excess of $500,000? It was a reality in 1913!
Very Little Price Pressure At Present
It is very difficult to find signs of accelerating inflation in today’s markets.
“Just Make It Go Away”
Jim Bianco observed in September that Europe was still in a “pre-Lehman” mentality regarding its debt crisis, in which investors and policymakers “were worried more about the equity and propriety of where taxpayer money was going than about fixing the problem.”
Stock Market
- Dreams Of What Could Have Been
- Nice Gains… But In The Wrong Groups
- Tax Rates And The Good Old Days
- “Just Make It Go Away”
- Market Worrying You? Just Sleep On It!
- Major Trend Index: Deteriorates To Neutral
- Playing The Bounce: New Methodology And Backtesting
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Position Initiated In Select Industries
- New General Merchandise Stores Position Initiated In Select Industries
- New Health Care Technology Position Initiated In Select Industries
Quant
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
