Green Book July 2002
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not the start of something big.
Building A Defensive Equity Portfolio
Many professional portfolio managers are “equity only” managers, precluded from building up large cash reserves or considering alternative asset classes. Ideas for those who must be fully invested.
Dealing With The Earnings Quagmire
A review of how companies can manipulate their earnings.
Do Small Caps Lead When The Dollar Is Falling?
Performance results make a case that a declining dollar may be more favorable to large caps than small caps.
First Pay Check
Traci Reese sent this in from St. Michael, Minnesota. This is the first Big Blue Ribbon for Traci. If you have ever been involved in building or remodeling a home, you gotta love this joke.
Insider Block Measures....Another Sell Signal Registered In Late June
This is the second sell signal registered in the last six weeks.
June Mutual Fund Flows
Estimate outflow of $20 billion in June, largest redemption month since Sept 01…..Not yet panic mode as this only represents 0.7% of total U.S. equity fund assets.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
NASDAQ record high short selling. NYSE moving to new highs.
New Group Coverage
Added coverage of three new groups to our Leuthold's Groups publication: High ROI Screen, Health Care Cost Containment, and Fountains of Youth.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Adding Diversified Metals & Mining
Ranking in top twenty and making a play on declining dollar and rising inflation.
No Capitulation Yet
The stock market's decline has been relentless and now even Small Caps have joined the retreat. But, while mutual fund investors have been skittish, they have not panicked up to now. Also, is this a Secular Bear Market?
Royal Blue…..Annual Reconstruction
Eleven new components, six of which are first time qualifiers.
Scanning The Markets
There was essentially no group leadership during June.
Tech Watch
Fundamentals continue to build for technology, but prices still not cheap. Semiconductors continue to show stabilization. Japanese shipments above median for first time in over a year.
View From The North Country
Corporate Crime Wave—Not a new era, but exaggerated by length of recent bull market….Why and how some real reform must become reality. Also, why the Federal Deficit is likely to exceed $200 billion.
Volatility Update…..Seems To Be On The Rise Of Late
Volatility is still running at a pace significantly less than in 2000 and 2001, but the recent acceleration is troubling.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- No Capitulation Yet
- Dealing With The Earnings Quagmire
- June Mutual Fund Flows
- Do Small Caps Lead When The Dollar Is Falling?
- Volatility Update…..Seems To Be On The Rise Of Late
- Insider Block Measures....Another Sell Signal Registered In Late June
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
- Royal Blue…..Annual Reconstruction
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch
- New Group Coverage
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Adding Diversified Metals & Mining
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
Bond Market Summary
Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not the start of something big.
Building A Defensive Equity Portfolio
Many professional portfolio managers are “equity only” managers, precluded from building up large cash reserves or considering alternative asset classes. Ideas for those who must be fully invested.
Dealing With The Earnings Quagmire
A review of how companies can manipulate their earnings.
Do Small Caps Lead When The Dollar Is Falling?
Performance results make a case that a declining dollar may be more favorable to large caps than small caps.
First Pay Check
Traci Reese sent this in from St. Michael, Minnesota. This is the first Big Blue Ribbon for Traci. If you have ever been involved in building or remodeling a home, you gotta love this joke.
Insider Block Measures....Another Sell Signal Registered In Late June
This is the second sell signal registered in the last six weeks.
June Mutual Fund Flows
Estimate outflow of $20 billion in June, largest redemption month since Sept 01…..Not yet panic mode as this only represents 0.7% of total U.S. equity fund assets.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
NASDAQ record high short selling. NYSE moving to new highs.
New Group Coverage
Added coverage of three new groups to our Leuthold's Groups publication: High ROI Screen, Health Care Cost Containment, and Fountains of Youth.
New Select Industries Group Holding: Adding Diversified Metals & Mining
Ranking in top twenty and making a play on declining dollar and rising inflation.
No Capitulation Yet
The stock market's decline has been relentless and now even Small Caps have joined the retreat. But, while mutual fund investors have been skittish, they have not panicked up to now. Also, is this a Secular Bear Market?
Royal Blue…..Annual Reconstruction
Eleven new components, six of which are first time qualifiers.
Scanning The Markets
There was essentially no group leadership during June.
Tech Watch
Fundamentals continue to build for technology, but prices still not cheap. Semiconductors continue to show stabilization. Japanese shipments above median for first time in over a year.
View From The North Country
Corporate Crime Wave—Not a new era, but exaggerated by length of recent bull market….Why and how some real reform must become reality. Also, why the Federal Deficit is likely to exceed $200 billion.
Volatility Update…..Seems To Be On The Rise Of Late
Volatility is still running at a pace significantly less than in 2000 and 2001, but the recent acceleration is troubling.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- No Capitulation Yet
- Dealing With The Earnings Quagmire
- June Mutual Fund Flows
- Do Small Caps Lead When The Dollar Is Falling?
- Volatility Update…..Seems To Be On The Rise Of Late
- Insider Block Measures....Another Sell Signal Registered In Late June
- NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
- Royal Blue…..Annual Reconstruction
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Tech Watch
- New Group Coverage
- New Select Industries Group Holding: Adding Diversified Metals & Mining
- Scanning The Markets
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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