Green Book October 2008
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Featured Articles
Consumer Discretionary....Time To Buy?? Or Is The Devil In The Retails?
While many consumer groups are seeing significant improvement in the GS Scores, careful selection is important as there are still several Discretionary groups rated Unattractive.
Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective
Doug Ramsey examines the history of bank failures and prior liquidity crises (back to 1830) to demonstrate that this current financial meltdown is not unprecedented. The names have changed, but the economic and emotional responses have been loosely patterned over the entire time frame.
High Yield Bonds: Start Accumulating
High Yield bonds have reached our attractive zone at yields of nearly 14%. To us, a gradual accumulation program makes sense.
Home Improvement Retail Activated In Equity Portfolio
Building new portfolio holding in Home Improvement Retail. Our Consumer Discretionary holdings now overweight (versus S&P 500) with an 11% position our Select Industries Equity Portfolio.
Playing The Bounce 2008 - Most Of The Market Due For A Bounce
October brings our annual exercise in the “Playing The Bounce” strategy. This month’s “Inside The Stock Market” presents the initial run of stocks which may be subject to heavy tax loss selling. Traditionally, these stocks may be poised to “bounce” back early in the next year as selling pressure wanes.
Portraits Of Declining Inflation
Jim Floyd and Steve Leuthold believe that U.S. consumer price inflation has peaked and is headed for the +3% level by mid-2009. With current headline inflation running at +5.4%, that implies there is plenty of disinflation in the pipeline.
Technical Comment: No Worries Over “Dow Theory?"
Dow Theorists looking at current market environment may be concluding stocks could weaken further. However, historically when confirmation from the Transports takes an excessively long time to develop (like it has currently), the technical pattern has actually provided an excellent buy signal.
That Time Of Year For Tech??
We have found that technology has the strongest seasonal tendency of any sector during the market’s “bullish” seasonal period of November through April.
The Beginning Of The End.....Yes, We’re Talking About The Bear Market
September was a horrible month for the stock market, but now is not the time to be selling stocks. We believe a market bottom is close at hand, and this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section presents several of our “big picture”, historical market studies to provide support for this belief.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The Beginning Of The End.....Yes, We’re Talking About The Bear Market
- Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective
- Technical Comment: No Worries Over “Dow Theory?"
- That Time Of Year For Tech??
- Playing The Bounce 2008 - Most Of The Market Due For A Bounce
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
- Home Improvement Retail Activated In Equity Portfolio
- Consumer Discretionary....Time To Buy?? Or Is The Devil In The Retails?
Inflation Watch
Consumer Discretionary....Time To Buy?? Or Is The Devil In The Retails?
While many consumer groups are seeing significant improvement in the GS Scores, careful selection is important as there are still several Discretionary groups rated Unattractive.
Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective
Doug Ramsey examines the history of bank failures and prior liquidity crises (back to 1830) to demonstrate that this current financial meltdown is not unprecedented. The names have changed, but the economic and emotional responses have been loosely patterned over the entire time frame.
High Yield Bonds: Start Accumulating
High Yield bonds have reached our attractive zone at yields of nearly 14%. To us, a gradual accumulation program makes sense.
Home Improvement Retail Activated In Equity Portfolio
Building new portfolio holding in Home Improvement Retail. Our Consumer Discretionary holdings now overweight (versus S&P 500) with an 11% position our Select Industries Equity Portfolio.
Playing The Bounce 2008 - Most Of The Market Due For A Bounce
October brings our annual exercise in the “Playing The Bounce” strategy. This month’s “Inside The Stock Market” presents the initial run of stocks which may be subject to heavy tax loss selling. Traditionally, these stocks may be poised to “bounce” back early in the next year as selling pressure wanes.
Portraits Of Declining Inflation
Jim Floyd and Steve Leuthold believe that U.S. consumer price inflation has peaked and is headed for the +3% level by mid-2009. With current headline inflation running at +5.4%, that implies there is plenty of disinflation in the pipeline.
Technical Comment: No Worries Over “Dow Theory?"
Dow Theorists looking at current market environment may be concluding stocks could weaken further. However, historically when confirmation from the Transports takes an excessively long time to develop (like it has currently), the technical pattern has actually provided an excellent buy signal.
That Time Of Year For Tech??
We have found that technology has the strongest seasonal tendency of any sector during the market’s “bullish” seasonal period of November through April.
The Beginning Of The End.....Yes, We’re Talking About The Bear Market
September was a horrible month for the stock market, but now is not the time to be selling stocks. We believe a market bottom is close at hand, and this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section presents several of our “big picture”, historical market studies to provide support for this belief.
Stock Market
- The Beginning Of The End.....Yes, We’re Talking About The Bear Market
- Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective
- Technical Comment: No Worries Over “Dow Theory?"
- That Time Of Year For Tech??
- Playing The Bounce 2008 - Most Of The Market Due For A Bounce
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
- Home Improvement Retail Activated In Equity Portfolio
- Consumer Discretionary....Time To Buy?? Or Is The Devil In The Retails?
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
