Green Book July 2009
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Featured Articles
Are You Smarter Than A Bond Investor?
During the past several years, it has become fashionable to believe that bond investors are more sophisticated than stock investors. Personally we don’t buy that bond investors have any edge in intelligence or diligence.
Cash Is King… The Regime Of Buying Power Is Alive And Well
One might begin to think that if the reports of money supply growth rolling over are true, that the stock market could be facing its own liquidity crisis in short order. While these reports sound pretty bleak for future stock market liquidity, we advise taking these headline “scare” stories with a grain of salt.
China Equity Market: Investment Vehicles For U.S. Investors
Looking at alternative ways to play China. See this month’s list of H-shares trading in U.S. markets.
Deflation To Reflation… Give It Some Time!
Expectations for broad leadership from inflation-beneficiary sectors of Materials and Energy tell us that investor obsession seems to have shifted too rapidly from deflation to “reflation”.
Expect To See Rising CPI/PPI Inflation As Economy Recovers
Rising food and energy prices will more than offset deflationary CPI housing subset, ultimately driving the twelve month CPI rate to +3.6% by mid 2010.
Room For Global Earnings To Fall Further?
Even after a decline in global earnings of 46%, they could experience another 15% decline before reaching the bottom of the 40 year trend channel. It doesn’t look like last quarter’s stock market bottom means that an earnings bottom is imminent.
Second Helpings… Will There Be Leftovers After Financials Leave The Table?
We have maintained that the mere fact that the Financials sector has been successful in raising capital via new equity issuance in the stock market is a good sign that the system is stabilizing. The aftermarket support for these deals indicates a healthy secondary market, and furthermore, points to the presence of ample stock market liquidity.
The Stampede That Wasn't
A month ago we suspected June might see a big institutional rush into the stock market. The stampede never came, though, and the market finished essentially flat for the month.
The Top Line Story: Which Groups Are Improving, Which Are Deteriorating
Believe it or not, 21 of our equity groups have not yet seen a quarterly decline in revenues. Several early cycle type groups have already experienced four quarters of declining revenues, but the good news is three groups have posted rebounds in revenues as of Q1 2009.
Update On Our Stock/Bond Performance In Focus Special Study
Despite strong stock market returns relative to 10-year Treasuries, the “generational anomalies” still exist. Stocks should outperform bonds going forward.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The Stampede That Wasn't
- China Equity Market: Investment Vehicles For U.S. Investors
- Room For Global Earnings To Fall Further?
- The Top Line Story: Which Groups Are Improving, Which Are Deteriorating
- Second Helpings… Will There Be Leftovers After Financials Leave The Table?
- Cash Is King… The Regime Of Buying Power Is Alive And Well
- Update On Our Stock/Bond Performance In Focus Special Study
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
Are You Smarter Than A Bond Investor?
During the past several years, it has become fashionable to believe that bond investors are more sophisticated than stock investors. Personally we don’t buy that bond investors have any edge in intelligence or diligence.
Cash Is King… The Regime Of Buying Power Is Alive And Well
One might begin to think that if the reports of money supply growth rolling over are true, that the stock market could be facing its own liquidity crisis in short order. While these reports sound pretty bleak for future stock market liquidity, we advise taking these headline “scare” stories with a grain of salt.
China Equity Market: Investment Vehicles For U.S. Investors
Looking at alternative ways to play China. See this month’s list of H-shares trading in U.S. markets.
Deflation To Reflation… Give It Some Time!
Expectations for broad leadership from inflation-beneficiary sectors of Materials and Energy tell us that investor obsession seems to have shifted too rapidly from deflation to “reflation”.
Expect To See Rising CPI/PPI Inflation As Economy Recovers
Rising food and energy prices will more than offset deflationary CPI housing subset, ultimately driving the twelve month CPI rate to +3.6% by mid 2010.
Room For Global Earnings To Fall Further?
Even after a decline in global earnings of 46%, they could experience another 15% decline before reaching the bottom of the 40 year trend channel. It doesn’t look like last quarter’s stock market bottom means that an earnings bottom is imminent.
Second Helpings… Will There Be Leftovers After Financials Leave The Table?
We have maintained that the mere fact that the Financials sector has been successful in raising capital via new equity issuance in the stock market is a good sign that the system is stabilizing. The aftermarket support for these deals indicates a healthy secondary market, and furthermore, points to the presence of ample stock market liquidity.
The Stampede That Wasn't
A month ago we suspected June might see a big institutional rush into the stock market. The stampede never came, though, and the market finished essentially flat for the month.
The Top Line Story: Which Groups Are Improving, Which Are Deteriorating
Believe it or not, 21 of our equity groups have not yet seen a quarterly decline in revenues. Several early cycle type groups have already experienced four quarters of declining revenues, but the good news is three groups have posted rebounds in revenues as of Q1 2009.
Update On Our Stock/Bond Performance In Focus Special Study
Despite strong stock market returns relative to 10-year Treasuries, the “generational anomalies” still exist. Stocks should outperform bonds going forward.
Stock Market
- The Stampede That Wasn't
- China Equity Market: Investment Vehicles For U.S. Investors
- Room For Global Earnings To Fall Further?
- The Top Line Story: Which Groups Are Improving, Which Are Deteriorating
- Second Helpings… Will There Be Leftovers After Financials Leave The Table?
- Cash Is King… The Regime Of Buying Power Is Alive And Well
- Update On Our Stock/Bond Performance In Focus Special Study
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
