Green Book March 2005
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Featured Articles
2005 Outlook: High Energy Prices Will Show Up In Next CPI & PPI Reports
We estimate +3.3% real GDP growth in 2005, after weakening in the second half of the year.
2005 S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Revised 2% Lower
Revised 2005 earnings for the S&P 500 down from +10% to +8%. Q4 2004 earnings stronger than anticipated. Will make for tougher comparisons at 2005 year end.
Adding Tech Back To Select Industries
New portfolio group position being established in Computer Storage & Peripherals, giving us our first tech holding in eight months.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
Examining Trends In Mergers & Acquisitions
Heading into 2005, many investors were looking for a pickup in M&A activity.
February Market Action
Right out of the gates, February’s stock market performance quickly erased the declines posted in January. But by month end, the S&P 500 had given back some of the ground gained in the first half.
Just How Good Were the Group Selection Scores in 2004?
A look at how our Group Selection Scores did in 2004.
Mutual Fund Flows...February Cash Flows Rebound
Weekly flow during the month of February mostly followed the trend of the stock market.
Profit Margins At The Sector Level
An expanded discussion of profit margins broken out by broad sectors. Expect some expansion still in Materials and Energy, as well as possibly Tech. Contraction anticipated in Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Telecom.
Small Cap Breadth Deterioration…..A Transition To Large Cap Leadership?
Still think Small Caps have leadership position over Large Caps, but it is getting more difficult.
View From The North Country
Weighing in on the current stock market positives and negatives currently being discussed by clients and Wall Street strategists.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- February Market Action
- 2005 S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Revised 2% Lower
- Small Cap Breadth Deterioration…..A Transition To Large Cap Leadership?
- Examining Trends In Mergers & Acquisitions
- Mutual Fund Flows...February Cash Flows Rebound
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Adding Tech Back To Select Industries
- Just How Good Were the Group Selection Scores in 2004?
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Up Huge in February
Inflation Watch
At Random
2005 Outlook: High Energy Prices Will Show Up In Next CPI & PPI Reports
We estimate +3.3% real GDP growth in 2005, after weakening in the second half of the year.
2005 S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Revised 2% Lower
Revised 2005 earnings for the S&P 500 down from +10% to +8%. Q4 2004 earnings stronger than anticipated. Will make for tougher comparisons at 2005 year end.
Adding Tech Back To Select Industries
New portfolio group position being established in Computer Storage & Peripherals, giving us our first tech holding in eight months.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
Examining Trends In Mergers & Acquisitions
Heading into 2005, many investors were looking for a pickup in M&A activity.
February Market Action
Right out of the gates, February’s stock market performance quickly erased the declines posted in January. But by month end, the S&P 500 had given back some of the ground gained in the first half.
Just How Good Were the Group Selection Scores in 2004?
A look at how our Group Selection Scores did in 2004.
Mutual Fund Flows...February Cash Flows Rebound
Weekly flow during the month of February mostly followed the trend of the stock market.
Profit Margins At The Sector Level
An expanded discussion of profit margins broken out by broad sectors. Expect some expansion still in Materials and Energy, as well as possibly Tech. Contraction anticipated in Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Telecom.
Small Cap Breadth Deterioration…..A Transition To Large Cap Leadership?
Still think Small Caps have leadership position over Large Caps, but it is getting more difficult.
View From The North Country
Weighing in on the current stock market positives and negatives currently being discussed by clients and Wall Street strategists.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- February Market Action
- 2005 S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Revised 2% Lower
- Small Cap Breadth Deterioration…..A Transition To Large Cap Leadership?
- Examining Trends In Mergers & Acquisitions
- Mutual Fund Flows...February Cash Flows Rebound
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Adding Tech Back To Select Industries
- Just How Good Were the Group Selection Scores in 2004?
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Up Huge in February
Inflation Watch
At Random
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