Green Book April 1983
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is also in the midst of secular and cyclical bull moves. But intermediate-term is now a question mark. However, if bonds exceed November 1982 peaks, assume cyclical bull market back on track. Go with the flow.
Cyclical Stocks May Be Better Than Growth Stocks
During March, the cyclicals outperformed the growth stocks. Growth stocks were clearly superior from mid-1981 through November 1982. But since December, momentum has shifted in favor of the cyclicals. The long-term trend appears to have reversed in favor of the cyclicals.
Inside the Stock Market
The stock market is about half way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. The cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index. However, the intermediate term correction looks like it’s finally here.
Up with The OiIs
We have increased our Oil Patch holdings by 5%, now 14% of Equity Portfolio assets. The recent spot oil price trends now seem to confirm our preliminary conclusion that crude price declines are over…..at least for a while.
View from the North Country
“How to Beat the Stock Market?” In a bubbling high-tech market, a strong dose of low P/E enforcement is good for the soul. So, in mid-March, my wife and I had dinner with good friend, David Dreman. “Inflation Watch – Time for Some Caution?” Today, with most inflation measures under 4%, we are approaching what has historically been an environment of moderate inflation, perhaps even price stability.
What Happens to the Stock Market When Inflation is Accelerating or Decelerating?
An update of our historic research tracking all years of significant inflation acceleration and deceleration since 1900. If inflation does rise to 6% by year end 1983, the stock market outlook is not so bright.
Table of Contents
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is also in the midst of secular and cyclical bull moves. But intermediate-term is now a question mark. However, if bonds exceed November 1982 peaks, assume cyclical bull market back on track. Go with the flow.
Cyclical Stocks May Be Better Than Growth Stocks
During March, the cyclicals outperformed the growth stocks. Growth stocks were clearly superior from mid-1981 through November 1982. But since December, momentum has shifted in favor of the cyclicals. The long-term trend appears to have reversed in favor of the cyclicals.
Inside the Stock Market
The stock market is about half way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. The cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index. However, the intermediate term correction looks like it’s finally here.
Up with The OiIs
We have increased our Oil Patch holdings by 5%, now 14% of Equity Portfolio assets. The recent spot oil price trends now seem to confirm our preliminary conclusion that crude price declines are over…..at least for a while.
View from the North Country
“How to Beat the Stock Market?” In a bubbling high-tech market, a strong dose of low P/E enforcement is good for the soul. So, in mid-March, my wife and I had dinner with good friend, David Dreman. “Inflation Watch – Time for Some Caution?” Today, with most inflation measures under 4%, we are approaching what has historically been an environment of moderate inflation, perhaps even price stability.
What Happens to the Stock Market When Inflation is Accelerating or Decelerating?
An update of our historic research tracking all years of significant inflation acceleration and deceleration since 1900. If inflation does rise to 6% by year end 1983, the stock market outlook is not so bright.
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