Green Book July 2024
Rarified Air
Is the U.S. stock market a bubble? As we answer elsewhere within "Inside the Stock Market," no. It is only priced like one.
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Featured Articles
Will A Rate Cut “Ring The Bell?”
We do think that a September rate cut—the first of many—now looks likely. But the aftermath of any cut might not be what traders are conditioned to expect. Subsequent to the tightening cycles of 1999-2000 and 2006-2007, the initial rate cuts provided timely excuses to dump stocks—as did most of the cuts that followed.
The Current State Of Value—An Update
Value’s migration behavior was the key to its failure between 2010-2020—its pattern got progressively worse, culminating in a Value trap during 2017-2020. We believe macro tailwinds and positive surprises are both needed, and, while the setup on the macro front, post-2020, has become quite favorable, in order to breathe more life into Value we need to see the upswing in earnings surprises continue.
Research Preview: Defining The Mid-Cap Style
The unbounded nature of large-cap and small-cap styles means that they cover a great deal of territory, while mid-cap stands alone as a bounded style, and such limits significantly influence how a fund is classified. On the other hand, multi-cap is intentionally defined with wide latitude, but shares a style category with mid-caps, despite having little else in common.
Inflation Versus The Cost Of Living
We don’t contend that the 3.3% YoY gain in CPI totally understates today’s inflation rate; however, small measurement errors add up over time. Only a government economist could believe that the CPI’s 21% increase since January 2020 captures the true rise in Americans’ cost of living.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Rarified Air
- Wealth Effect: The Good And The Bad
- Inflation Versus The Cost Of Living
- Job Market Looks “Pre-Recessionary”
- Like The Tech Bubble, But Better!?
- Will A Rate Cut “Ring The Bell?”
- Rarified Territory
- Time To Get More “Active?”
- Beware Of The Large-Cap “Safety Trade”
- Leadership Change At Hand?
- Thrust, Then Bust?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Will A Rate Cut “Ring The Bell?”
We do think that a September rate cut—the first of many—now looks likely. But the aftermath of any cut might not be what traders are conditioned to expect. Subsequent to the tightening cycles of 1999-2000 and 2006-2007, the initial rate cuts provided timely excuses to dump stocks—as did most of the cuts that followed.
The Current State Of Value—An Update
Value’s migration behavior was the key to its failure between 2010-2020—its pattern got progressively worse, culminating in a Value trap during 2017-2020. We believe macro tailwinds and positive surprises are both needed, and, while the setup on the macro front, post-2020, has become quite favorable, in order to breathe more life into Value we need to see the upswing in earnings surprises continue.
Research Preview: Defining The Mid-Cap Style
The unbounded nature of large-cap and small-cap styles means that they cover a great deal of territory, while mid-cap stands alone as a bounded style, and such limits significantly influence how a fund is classified. On the other hand, multi-cap is intentionally defined with wide latitude, but shares a style category with mid-caps, despite having little else in common.
Inflation Versus The Cost Of Living
We don’t contend that the 3.3% YoY gain in CPI totally understates today’s inflation rate; however, small measurement errors add up over time. Only a government economist could believe that the CPI’s 21% increase since January 2020 captures the true rise in Americans’ cost of living.
Stock Market
- Rarified Air
- Wealth Effect: The Good And The Bad
- Inflation Versus The Cost Of Living
- Job Market Looks “Pre-Recessionary”
- Like The Tech Bubble, But Better!?
- Will A Rate Cut “Ring The Bell?”
- Rarified Territory
- Time To Get More “Active?”
- Beware Of The Large-Cap “Safety Trade”
- Leadership Change At Hand?
- Thrust, Then Bust?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
