Green Book March 1995
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
Bond market now ahead of itself...Economy stronger than many perceive...Fed may not be done tightening...Expect bond market correction to develop from overbought position sometime in March.
Earnings Momentum: How Much Better Can It Get?
Earnings momentum may be peaking. The economy should slow by mid-1995, but analysts may not be factoring this into estimates. Also, year over year comparisons will be tougher as 1994's big earnings numbers get factored in.
February Action: Not Many Declining Sectors
In late February, the stock market moved to new highs. The DJIA broke above its 4000 barrier on a 4.4% gain for the month, while the S&P 500 rose 3.6%. Only four of our 61 groups turned in negative performance during February.
Joke of the Month
Joke flow was in particularly poor taste this last month. Yes, even worse than last issue’s miniature piano player joke.
Regressing to the Median Equity Returns: Are We There Yet?
Our studies suggest we still have some further regression before returning to median returns. Looking out to a 3-5 year horizon, we expect equity returns to lag historical averages as returns regress further toward normal long term (10 year) performance.
Stock Market Hits New Highs, But Major Trend Is Still Negative
Greenspan's comments about the possibility of lower short term rates and orchestrating a soft landing ignited the bond market and stocks followed suit, with several market indices hitting new highs.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Equity offerings have picked up somewhat, but so has the flow into mutual funds. Supply/Demand still seems in reasonable balance.
View from the North Country
The incentive system from hell: Adjusted for inflation, we now spend nine times as much on welfare as when the War on Poverty began in 1965. Also, an interesting study by Collins Associates: Past performance is not a reliable prediction of future performance and, in fact, is a poor predictor of future results.
Worth Noting
How strong is the underlying market? An update on investor psychology and a look at the DJIA psychological barriers. The Leuthold Group’s February Polling the Pros results.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Stock Market Hits New Highs, But Major Trend Is Still Negative
- Supply/Demand Considerations
- Worth Noting
- Earnings Momentum: How Much Better Can It Get?
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
Bond market now ahead of itself...Economy stronger than many perceive...Fed may not be done tightening...Expect bond market correction to develop from overbought position sometime in March.
Earnings Momentum: How Much Better Can It Get?
Earnings momentum may be peaking. The economy should slow by mid-1995, but analysts may not be factoring this into estimates. Also, year over year comparisons will be tougher as 1994's big earnings numbers get factored in.
February Action: Not Many Declining Sectors
In late February, the stock market moved to new highs. The DJIA broke above its 4000 barrier on a 4.4% gain for the month, while the S&P 500 rose 3.6%. Only four of our 61 groups turned in negative performance during February.
Joke of the Month
Joke flow was in particularly poor taste this last month. Yes, even worse than last issue’s miniature piano player joke.
Regressing to the Median Equity Returns: Are We There Yet?
Our studies suggest we still have some further regression before returning to median returns. Looking out to a 3-5 year horizon, we expect equity returns to lag historical averages as returns regress further toward normal long term (10 year) performance.
Stock Market Hits New Highs, But Major Trend Is Still Negative
Greenspan's comments about the possibility of lower short term rates and orchestrating a soft landing ignited the bond market and stocks followed suit, with several market indices hitting new highs.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Equity offerings have picked up somewhat, but so has the flow into mutual funds. Supply/Demand still seems in reasonable balance.
View from the North Country
The incentive system from hell: Adjusted for inflation, we now spend nine times as much on welfare as when the War on Poverty began in 1965. Also, an interesting study by Collins Associates: Past performance is not a reliable prediction of future performance and, in fact, is a poor predictor of future results.
Worth Noting
How strong is the underlying market? An update on investor psychology and a look at the DJIA psychological barriers. The Leuthold Group’s February Polling the Pros results.
Stock Market
- Stock Market Hits New Highs, But Major Trend Is Still Negative
- Supply/Demand Considerations
- Worth Noting
- Earnings Momentum: How Much Better Can It Get?
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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