Green Book May 1991
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Featured Articles
A Ho Hum Month
In April, the media staged a Dow Jones 3000 celebration, but the stock market didn’t. After the April 17 close of 3004, the DJIA beat a hasty retreat with the S&P 500 following suit. By the end of April, the post 3000 decline took the market averages back down to where they started the month.
Bond Market Summary
For the month of April, higher quality long bonds turned in small fractional gains. The economic tea leaves were mixed, inflation numbers were good, the dollar held up and short term rates came down. However, a big pick up in new fixed income offerings seemed to satisfy investor demand.
Joke of the Month
Sorry, there was not much left when the sensitivity censor finished his work. However, there is one joke survivor, one that I’m sure will not offend anybody.
New To Equity Model: “Industrial Technology”
This could prove to be a very rewarding investment sector, assuming the market continues to favor technology and an economic recovery gets underway in late 1991.
Playing the Bounce Update: Wow!
This has been a vintage “bounce” period, perhaps the best ever! We know some of our smarter clients did play this game. The following section is a monitor for those fortunate and gutsy few.
Real Interest Rates: “It Ain’t Necessarily So”
The concept of a “real” rate of interest is widely held, but it does not appear to be a natural law. It is not a truism that has prevailed forever. Like many investment concepts and theories, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.
Relative Performance: Large Cap/Small Cap
The moving average was broken on the upside in March and relative performance was flat in April. In anticipation of this basic change in market focus our equity model has built up secondary stock exposure.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by April 1991 performance.
The Dollar: “Tower of Power” Or Lop-Sided Leaning Tower?
The surge so widely advertised in the press and in financial circles primarily reflects a loss of investor and speculator confidence in Europe, not massive new respect and confidence in the U.S. dollar. Also, for the U.S. investor in German bunds or other European bonds, there are really two sets of currency considerations, the specific European currency and then the U.S. dollar.
View from the North Country
In April, polls were taken at the South Florida Financial Analysts Society and at Leuthold Group luncheons in Minneapolis, Chicago, Baltimore and Toronto.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- A Ho Hum Month
- Relative Performance: Large Cap/Small Cap
- The Dollar: “Tower of Power” Or Lop-Sided Leaning Tower?
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Ho Hum Month
In April, the media staged a Dow Jones 3000 celebration, but the stock market didn’t. After the April 17 close of 3004, the DJIA beat a hasty retreat with the S&P 500 following suit. By the end of April, the post 3000 decline took the market averages back down to where they started the month.
Bond Market Summary
For the month of April, higher quality long bonds turned in small fractional gains. The economic tea leaves were mixed, inflation numbers were good, the dollar held up and short term rates came down. However, a big pick up in new fixed income offerings seemed to satisfy investor demand.
Joke of the Month
Sorry, there was not much left when the sensitivity censor finished his work. However, there is one joke survivor, one that I’m sure will not offend anybody.
New To Equity Model: “Industrial Technology”
This could prove to be a very rewarding investment sector, assuming the market continues to favor technology and an economic recovery gets underway in late 1991.
Playing the Bounce Update: Wow!
This has been a vintage “bounce” period, perhaps the best ever! We know some of our smarter clients did play this game. The following section is a monitor for those fortunate and gutsy few.
Real Interest Rates: “It Ain’t Necessarily So”
The concept of a “real” rate of interest is widely held, but it does not appear to be a natural law. It is not a truism that has prevailed forever. Like many investment concepts and theories, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.
Relative Performance: Large Cap/Small Cap
The moving average was broken on the upside in March and relative performance was flat in April. In anticipation of this basic change in market focus our equity model has built up secondary stock exposure.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by April 1991 performance.
The Dollar: “Tower of Power” Or Lop-Sided Leaning Tower?
The surge so widely advertised in the press and in financial circles primarily reflects a loss of investor and speculator confidence in Europe, not massive new respect and confidence in the U.S. dollar. Also, for the U.S. investor in German bunds or other European bonds, there are really two sets of currency considerations, the specific European currency and then the U.S. dollar.
View from the North Country
In April, polls were taken at the South Florida Financial Analysts Society and at Leuthold Group luncheons in Minneapolis, Chicago, Baltimore and Toronto.
Stock Market
- A Ho Hum Month
- Relative Performance: Large Cap/Small Cap
- The Dollar: “Tower of Power” Or Lop-Sided Leaning Tower?
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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