Green Book October 2005
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Featured Articles
Adding A Position In Biotechnology
Adding new 6% holding in Biotech stocks, replacing holdings from Distillers & Vintners as well as Fertilizers & Ag Chemicals (both groups deactivated).
Boosting Inflation Projections
Boosting our 2005 inflation projections based on continuing high energy prices and anticipated above average September CPI/PPI inflation readings. Also, the implications of higher inflation.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. Boosting bond market target yields based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Surge Higher In September, Now Top-Rated Group
The Industrial Metals equity group was up a whopping 11.7% in September versus a 0.7% gain for the S&P 500 and a 4.0% gain for the Leuthold Materials Sector.
Insider Selling/Buying In Health Care Sector…..Has Proven To Be A Useful Guide
A look at the Insider Selling patterns of several Health Care related groups. As with Energy groups, there is some evidence that Insiders’ transactions can be useful in identifying tops and bottoms in specific industry areas.
Looking For Earnings Disappointments.....Before They Hit The Fan
New Improved Potential Earnings Disappointments Screen: Inventory Growth Versus Sales Growth.
Major Trend Index....Now Negative
A detailed explanation about the decline in the Major Trend Index, which is primarily due to deterioration in the Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation category (rising inflation pressures) and a loss for the Supply/Demand components.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Monthly Net Redemptions For The Second Month In A Row
Now with two months of net outflow, we could be seeing complacency giving way to market concern.
Playing The Bounce 2005-2006
It’s Bounce season again, and Jim Floyd and Patrick Magnusson present the preliminary list of potential stocks that may rebound after being beaten down in 2005. Consumer Discretionary stocks are most plentiful on the list.
S&P 500 Energy Weight Is Misleading: Fewer Constituents, Not Less Market Cap
S&P 500 Energy weight is misleading. Adding the largest multi-national integrated oil companies to the S&P’s 10% energy weight doubles it to 20%.
September Market Action
Going into September, there was little expectation that equities would perform strongly in the coming month, and by that token, the market did not disappoint.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
Comparison the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold lays out both the bullish and bearish stock market cases.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- September Market Action
- Major Trend Index....Now Negative
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
- Looking For Earnings Disappointments.....Before They Hit The Fan
- S&P 500 Energy Weight Is Misleading: Fewer Constituents, Not Less Market Cap
- Insider Selling/Buying In Health Care Sector…..Has Proven To Be A Useful Guide
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Monthly Net Redemptions For The Second Month In A Row
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Adding A Position In Biotechnology
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Surge Higher In September, Now Top-Rated Group
Inflation Watch
Adding A Position In Biotechnology
Adding new 6% holding in Biotech stocks, replacing holdings from Distillers & Vintners as well as Fertilizers & Ag Chemicals (both groups deactivated).
Boosting Inflation Projections
Boosting our 2005 inflation projections based on continuing high energy prices and anticipated above average September CPI/PPI inflation readings. Also, the implications of higher inflation.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. Boosting bond market target yields based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Surge Higher In September, Now Top-Rated Group
The Industrial Metals equity group was up a whopping 11.7% in September versus a 0.7% gain for the S&P 500 and a 4.0% gain for the Leuthold Materials Sector.
Insider Selling/Buying In Health Care Sector…..Has Proven To Be A Useful Guide
A look at the Insider Selling patterns of several Health Care related groups. As with Energy groups, there is some evidence that Insiders’ transactions can be useful in identifying tops and bottoms in specific industry areas.
Looking For Earnings Disappointments.....Before They Hit The Fan
New Improved Potential Earnings Disappointments Screen: Inventory Growth Versus Sales Growth.
Major Trend Index....Now Negative
A detailed explanation about the decline in the Major Trend Index, which is primarily due to deterioration in the Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation category (rising inflation pressures) and a loss for the Supply/Demand components.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Monthly Net Redemptions For The Second Month In A Row
Now with two months of net outflow, we could be seeing complacency giving way to market concern.
Playing The Bounce 2005-2006
It’s Bounce season again, and Jim Floyd and Patrick Magnusson present the preliminary list of potential stocks that may rebound after being beaten down in 2005. Consumer Discretionary stocks are most plentiful on the list.
S&P 500 Energy Weight Is Misleading: Fewer Constituents, Not Less Market Cap
S&P 500 Energy weight is misleading. Adding the largest multi-national integrated oil companies to the S&P’s 10% energy weight doubles it to 20%.
September Market Action
Going into September, there was little expectation that equities would perform strongly in the coming month, and by that token, the market did not disappoint.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
Comparison the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold lays out both the bullish and bearish stock market cases.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- September Market Action
- Major Trend Index....Now Negative
- Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
- Looking For Earnings Disappointments.....Before They Hit The Fan
- S&P 500 Energy Weight Is Misleading: Fewer Constituents, Not Less Market Cap
- Insider Selling/Buying In Health Care Sector…..Has Proven To Be A Useful Guide
- Mutual Fund Flow…..Monthly Net Redemptions For The Second Month In A Row
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Adding A Position In Biotechnology
- Industrial Metals Stocks: Metals Equities Surge Higher In September, Now Top-Rated Group
Inflation Watch
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