Green Book April 2004
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Featured Articles
A Big Picture View of the Jobs Data
Recent job data re-enforces our belief the economy is rebounding nicely. Expect to see job picture continue to strengthen in coming months.
A Dollar Rally Seems To Be Underway
In last month’s “View From The North Country” Steve Leuthold outlined his case for a strong dollar. This issue, we just wanted to show the updated charts, and comment that the rally appears to have begun.
April 2004 Blue Ribbon Winner
The Blue Ribbon goes to first time winner Richard Perkins of Perkins Capital Management, our close neighbor out in Wayzata Minnesota.
Bull Market: Part II
Bull Market Part II. Early 2004 correction seems over, rally appears to be developing
Commodity Diffusion Index
Falling dollar in recent years has helped drive commodity prices higher. See “Of Special Interest” for a discussion of our Euro Adjusted Commodity Diffusion Index. It is not as inflationary as the Traditional Commodity Diffusion Index, which is now at levels not seen since the late 1970s.
Earnings By Sector - Looking For EPS Growth In 2004
ComparIng earnings growth and estimates from Q1 2004 to those at the end of 2003.
Economic Outlook
Don’t get drawn into the TIPs trap. Lack of attractive bond opportunities and prospects for higher inflation may draw investors to Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds. However, there is still risk of significantly higher interest rates, and the fact the inflation factor is tied to an unreliable CPI.
March Mutual Fund Flows...March Inflow Tapers Off A Bit
While investors appeared to be cooling on the stock market mid-month, the month end rally served to invigorate Main Street’s penchant for chasing performance.
NASDAQ vs. S&P Market Weights
Comparing the sector weights between the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume, Dollar Volume Both Down In February, But Remain High
We check in to review February’s trading data (month lag in data) in order to see what has changed since our last update.
Scanning The Markets
Small and Mid Caps continued to outperform in March, with the S&P Small and Mid Cap both producing positive returns.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care
Since 2000, the Health Care sector has moved ahead with no help from the big drug stocks.
View From The North Country
There is a clear lack of attractive options in fixed income and we are increasingly skeptical about the REIT markets, as premiums and new offerings are at or near peak levels. Industrial Metals still offer outstanding opportunity.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Bull Market: Part II
- NASDAQ vs. S&P Market Weights
- Earnings By Sector - Looking For EPS Growth In 2004
- A Big Picture View of the Jobs Data
- A Dollar Rally Seems To Be Underway
- March Mutual Fund Flows...March Inflow Tapers Off A Bit
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume, Dollar Volume Both Down In February, But Remain High
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Big Picture View of the Jobs Data
Recent job data re-enforces our belief the economy is rebounding nicely. Expect to see job picture continue to strengthen in coming months.
A Dollar Rally Seems To Be Underway
In last month’s “View From The North Country” Steve Leuthold outlined his case for a strong dollar. This issue, we just wanted to show the updated charts, and comment that the rally appears to have begun.
April 2004 Blue Ribbon Winner
The Blue Ribbon goes to first time winner Richard Perkins of Perkins Capital Management, our close neighbor out in Wayzata Minnesota.
Bull Market: Part II
Bull Market Part II. Early 2004 correction seems over, rally appears to be developing
Commodity Diffusion Index
Falling dollar in recent years has helped drive commodity prices higher. See “Of Special Interest” for a discussion of our Euro Adjusted Commodity Diffusion Index. It is not as inflationary as the Traditional Commodity Diffusion Index, which is now at levels not seen since the late 1970s.
Earnings By Sector - Looking For EPS Growth In 2004
ComparIng earnings growth and estimates from Q1 2004 to those at the end of 2003.
Economic Outlook
Don’t get drawn into the TIPs trap. Lack of attractive bond opportunities and prospects for higher inflation may draw investors to Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds. However, there is still risk of significantly higher interest rates, and the fact the inflation factor is tied to an unreliable CPI.
March Mutual Fund Flows...March Inflow Tapers Off A Bit
While investors appeared to be cooling on the stock market mid-month, the month end rally served to invigorate Main Street’s penchant for chasing performance.
NASDAQ vs. S&P Market Weights
Comparing the sector weights between the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume, Dollar Volume Both Down In February, But Remain High
We check in to review February’s trading data (month lag in data) in order to see what has changed since our last update.
Scanning The Markets
Small and Mid Caps continued to outperform in March, with the S&P Small and Mid Cap both producing positive returns.
Sector Spotlight: Health Care
Since 2000, the Health Care sector has moved ahead with no help from the big drug stocks.
View From The North Country
There is a clear lack of attractive options in fixed income and we are increasingly skeptical about the REIT markets, as premiums and new offerings are at or near peak levels. Industrial Metals still offer outstanding opportunity.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Bull Market: Part II
- NASDAQ vs. S&P Market Weights
- Earnings By Sector - Looking For EPS Growth In 2004
- A Big Picture View of the Jobs Data
- A Dollar Rally Seems To Be Underway
- March Mutual Fund Flows...March Inflow Tapers Off A Bit
- OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume, Dollar Volume Both Down In February, But Remain High
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
