Green Book April 2019
1999 Redux
As the market rebound has extended, we’ve noted its striking similarities with the rally of 1999—one that might have been the most speculative in U.S. history. A really bold bull might contend this environment is better than 1999 because the underlying sentiment is more sober. Sentiment is more restrained, but attitudes and actions aren’t the same thing.
Login
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Not a Subscriber?
If you are interested in subscribing to The Leuthold Group, contact us online or give us a call at 612-332-1567.
Contact Us
Featured Articles
A Confidence Game
Several consumer confidence gauges plunged in the wake of the Q4 market decline (as expected), and then rebounded in a lagged response to the stock market recovery (again, as expected). But March saw the largest one-month drop in consumers’ assessment of their “Present Situation” since 2008.
Factor Frontiers And Investing To The Max
Quantitative investing has taken the industry by storm over the last decade, and smart beta ETFs are pulling in billions of dollars as investors and advisors gravitate to this portfolio management technique.
Small Cap Biotech Getting Pricey Again
In May 2015, we warned about rich valuations for small cap Biotech stocks and looked at various ways to evaluate those companies, as the majority have no approved drugs on the market, thus no revenue; therefore, valuing these companies using the conventional methodology is problematic.
Movies & Entertainment & Broadcasting Revisited
Performance has been robust for this group, rising on a relative strength basis since the end of 2017. Its diverse mix of constituents equates to a group that, overall, is middle-of-road in terms of beta and volatility relative to other industries. These dynamics have contributed to its solid relative returns across diverging market environments of late.
Flows Muted For Most Equity Categories
As of the end of February, net cash flow into equity fund categories was subdued compared to that logged for the first two months of 2018.
Factor Performance: Has Anything Changed In 2019?
· From a factor performance standpoint, 2019 is looking a lot like 2018, with expensive Momentum names outperforming everything else and Value struggling.
On The Cutting Edge—End Of Fed Hikes?
The Fed not only signaled no rate hike for the rest of 2019, but also committed to unwinding its balance-sheet reduction program, starting in May and ending in September. The market took it one step further and priced in a rate cut in the second half of 2019.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- 1999 Redux
- A Confidence Game
- BAA Yields: The Baaaad And The Good!
- Inveighing Against The Inversion
- The P/E Decline Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
- The “Breakout” And Its Aftermath
- The Cyclical Bull In Perspective
- Bottom-Spotting In Foreign Stocks
- VLT & Implications For Small Caps
- Small Cap Biotech Getting Pricey Again
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
A Confidence Game
Several consumer confidence gauges plunged in the wake of the Q4 market decline (as expected), and then rebounded in a lagged response to the stock market recovery (again, as expected). But March saw the largest one-month drop in consumers’ assessment of their “Present Situation” since 2008.
Factor Frontiers And Investing To The Max
Quantitative investing has taken the industry by storm over the last decade, and smart beta ETFs are pulling in billions of dollars as investors and advisors gravitate to this portfolio management technique.
Small Cap Biotech Getting Pricey Again
In May 2015, we warned about rich valuations for small cap Biotech stocks and looked at various ways to evaluate those companies, as the majority have no approved drugs on the market, thus no revenue; therefore, valuing these companies using the conventional methodology is problematic.
Movies & Entertainment & Broadcasting Revisited
Performance has been robust for this group, rising on a relative strength basis since the end of 2017. Its diverse mix of constituents equates to a group that, overall, is middle-of-road in terms of beta and volatility relative to other industries. These dynamics have contributed to its solid relative returns across diverging market environments of late.
Flows Muted For Most Equity Categories
As of the end of February, net cash flow into equity fund categories was subdued compared to that logged for the first two months of 2018.
Factor Performance: Has Anything Changed In 2019?
· From a factor performance standpoint, 2019 is looking a lot like 2018, with expensive Momentum names outperforming everything else and Value struggling.
On The Cutting Edge—End Of Fed Hikes?
The Fed not only signaled no rate hike for the rest of 2019, but also committed to unwinding its balance-sheet reduction program, starting in May and ending in September. The market took it one step further and priced in a rate cut in the second half of 2019.
Stock Market
- 1999 Redux
- A Confidence Game
- BAA Yields: The Baaaad And The Good!
- Inveighing Against The Inversion
- The P/E Decline Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
- The “Breakout” And Its Aftermath
- The Cyclical Bull In Perspective
- Bottom-Spotting In Foreign Stocks
- VLT & Implications For Small Caps
- Small Cap Biotech Getting Pricey Again
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
