Green Book May 2014
Small Cap Weakness Is Not A Market Death Knell. We Need More Evidence.
The final distribution phase before a market top is typically accompanied by erosion in not only Small and Mid Cap market breadth, but in Large Cap breadth as well. There’s no sign of that yet.
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Featured Articles
Small Cap Weakness Is Not A Market Death Knell
With Small Cap stocks falling to an 11-month RS low while the DJIA hits a new price high, many technicians point to this divergence as evidence the dangerous "distribution" period is underway. We're not so sure.
Two Market Anomalies Intact: A Quantitative Review
We are entering the most bearish window among the potential combinations of the Presidential Election Cycle and the Annual Cycle.
EM Sentiment Readings Reach Extremes
A few measures are suggesting that investor sentiment towards EM has reached a low ebb.
Stock Market Observations
DJIA eclipsed its year-end closing high; Dow Transports still strong; NYSE A/D Line hits all-time high.
10-Year Yield: More Downside
We expect the 245-250 barrier to be tested, and if it is decisively broken, much lower yields could be in the cards.
Despite Volatility In Factor Performance, There Has Been Low Group Turnover
Info Tech and Health Care have been the highest rated sectors for 10 consecutive months. Energy sector is improving from the bottom of the rankings.
Refiners Group Looks Healthy Once Again
The only Energy group rated Attractive, its score has improved for seven consecutive months.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Distribution?
- Stock Market Observations
- Small Cap Weakness Is Not A Market Death Knell
- Party Like It's 1999?
- In Case You Missed Finance Class….
- A Quick Take On Time Cycles
- EM Sentiment Readings Reach Extremes
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Refiners Group Looks Healthy Once Again
- Companies Moving The Pills – Why We Still Like The Theme
- Despite Volatility In Factor Performance, There Has Been Low Group Turnover
- Highlighted Groups
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Portfolios Net Equity Exposure Unchanged At 64-65%
- Long-Only Portfolios Lag In April, But Ahead YTD
- 100% Short Portfolios Beat Benchmarks
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
- JOTM: From Deep In The Leuthold Archives
- We Need Material!
- Phil Takes Over "At Random"
- Introduction Via Colin Quinn
- Because We’re In the Midwest...
- Shhh… Be Very Very Quiet… It’s Annual Meeting Season
- A Few Quotes From W.C. Fields
- Things Overheard At The Twins Home Opener
- The Clippers Under New Ownership
Small Cap Weakness Is Not A Market Death Knell
With Small Cap stocks falling to an 11-month RS low while the DJIA hits a new price high, many technicians point to this divergence as evidence the dangerous "distribution" period is underway. We're not so sure.
Two Market Anomalies Intact: A Quantitative Review
We are entering the most bearish window among the potential combinations of the Presidential Election Cycle and the Annual Cycle.
EM Sentiment Readings Reach Extremes
A few measures are suggesting that investor sentiment towards EM has reached a low ebb.
Stock Market Observations
DJIA eclipsed its year-end closing high; Dow Transports still strong; NYSE A/D Line hits all-time high.
10-Year Yield: More Downside
We expect the 245-250 barrier to be tested, and if it is decisively broken, much lower yields could be in the cards.
Despite Volatility In Factor Performance, There Has Been Low Group Turnover
Info Tech and Health Care have been the highest rated sectors for 10 consecutive months. Energy sector is improving from the bottom of the rankings.
Refiners Group Looks Healthy Once Again
The only Energy group rated Attractive, its score has improved for seven consecutive months.
Stock Market
- Distribution?
- Stock Market Observations
- Small Cap Weakness Is Not A Market Death Knell
- Party Like It's 1999?
- In Case You Missed Finance Class….
- A Quick Take On Time Cycles
- EM Sentiment Readings Reach Extremes
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Refiners Group Looks Healthy Once Again
- Companies Moving The Pills – Why We Still Like The Theme
- Despite Volatility In Factor Performance, There Has Been Low Group Turnover
- Highlighted Groups
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Portfolios Net Equity Exposure Unchanged At 64-65%
- Long-Only Portfolios Lag In April, But Ahead YTD
- 100% Short Portfolios Beat Benchmarks
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
- JOTM: From Deep In The Leuthold Archives
- We Need Material!
- Phil Takes Over "At Random"
- Introduction Via Colin Quinn
- Because We’re In the Midwest...
- Shhh… Be Very Very Quiet… It’s Annual Meeting Season
- A Few Quotes From W.C. Fields
- Things Overheard At The Twins Home Opener
- The Clippers Under New Ownership
Perception for the Professional
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