Green Book March 2001
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Featured Articles
2001...January Bounced...February Trounced
Fortunately, we cashed in, in January. Tech stocks crashed in February. Luck or skill? We’ll take it.
Be A Buyer, Not A Seller
Stock selection in a recession is a different ball game! A look at some of the rules and the traps when investing during a recession. The Bullish Message Of Breadth: Demonstration of how divergences between the S&P 500 and the A/D Lines have denoted market tops and market strength.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds still performing better than stocks in 2001, especially Junk Bonds. Commodity Diffusion Index declined sharply to 42%. Historically this is a significant positive for stocks and bonds.
Bull Market Returns: Missing the Best/Worst Days
Is a market timing strategy superior to “buy and hold”? You can prove anything with numbers. Despite that, there does appear to be a supportive case for tactical asset allocation, or market timing.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
February Mutual Fund FlowsModerate Net Redemptions In February
This is the first monthly net redemption since August 1998’s $6.6 billion net outflow during the throes of the Asian market crisis.
Insider Block Measures...Looks Like Insiders Were Right
The smart money exodus began back in late March of 2000, when 10-week total “net selling” spiked to an unprecedented 1.8% of total market capitalization. In retrospect, this was a perfect sell signal for equities.
Internet Debacle Index
At the market peak, this index (previously dubbed “Internet Insanity Index”), had 75 stocks with a market cap of $1.26 trillion. Currently, there are only 60 stocks, with a combined market cap of just $290 billion (down $970 billion)!
Joke of the Month
Back in the winner’s circle is Davis Clayson at Boston Partners.
Scanning The Markets
Once again it looks like the market turned on a dime. In January, we saw many big losers from 2000 bounce back. But in February, things reversed again.
Tech Stocks Approaching "Normal" Valuations
S&P 500 tech weighting has plunged 43% from February 2000’s peak of 34%. Now at 19%, but expect it may have further to fall in 2001.
View From The North Country
Navigating safely through the current, turbulent market environment requires more experience, knowledge and training.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Be A Buyer, Not A Seller
- February Mutual Fund FlowsModerate Net Redemptions In February
- Insider Block Measures...Looks Like Insiders Were Right
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- 2001...January Bounced...February Trounced
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
2001...January Bounced...February Trounced
Fortunately, we cashed in, in January. Tech stocks crashed in February. Luck or skill? We’ll take it.
Be A Buyer, Not A Seller
Stock selection in a recession is a different ball game! A look at some of the rules and the traps when investing during a recession. The Bullish Message Of Breadth: Demonstration of how divergences between the S&P 500 and the A/D Lines have denoted market tops and market strength.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds still performing better than stocks in 2001, especially Junk Bonds. Commodity Diffusion Index declined sharply to 42%. Historically this is a significant positive for stocks and bonds.
Bull Market Returns: Missing the Best/Worst Days
Is a market timing strategy superior to “buy and hold”? You can prove anything with numbers. Despite that, there does appear to be a supportive case for tactical asset allocation, or market timing.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
February Mutual Fund FlowsModerate Net Redemptions In February
This is the first monthly net redemption since August 1998’s $6.6 billion net outflow during the throes of the Asian market crisis.
Insider Block Measures...Looks Like Insiders Were Right
The smart money exodus began back in late March of 2000, when 10-week total “net selling” spiked to an unprecedented 1.8% of total market capitalization. In retrospect, this was a perfect sell signal for equities.
Internet Debacle Index
At the market peak, this index (previously dubbed “Internet Insanity Index”), had 75 stocks with a market cap of $1.26 trillion. Currently, there are only 60 stocks, with a combined market cap of just $290 billion (down $970 billion)!
Joke of the Month
Back in the winner’s circle is Davis Clayson at Boston Partners.
Scanning The Markets
Once again it looks like the market turned on a dime. In January, we saw many big losers from 2000 bounce back. But in February, things reversed again.
Tech Stocks Approaching "Normal" Valuations
S&P 500 tech weighting has plunged 43% from February 2000’s peak of 34%. Now at 19%, but expect it may have further to fall in 2001.
View From The North Country
Navigating safely through the current, turbulent market environment requires more experience, knowledge and training.
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Be A Buyer, Not A Seller
- February Mutual Fund FlowsModerate Net Redemptions In February
- Insider Block Measures...Looks Like Insiders Were Right
- Capitalization Tier Meausres
- 2001...January Bounced...February Trounced
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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