Green Book May 1983
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Bond Market Summary
The bond market is also in the midst of secular and cyclical bull moves and the six-month consolidation may be over. If T-Bonds clearly exceed November 1982 peaks, assume the cyclical bull market is back on track with a cyclical target zone of 8.5% yields...lower on a secular basis.
Comparing the Bulls
All bull markets since 1896 are examined and compared with the current specimen in terms of cumulative month by month gains. In terms of dynamics, this is an exceptional market, but hardly unprecedented. Also, all the long sustained uninterrupted uptrends of the past (like those in the 1950’s) are examined. Is this another one of those? We don’t think so. The current specimen has gone too far too fast.
False Inflation Fears?
Others are also beginning to think 1983 inflation could surprise on the upside. From the market’s standpoint, the fear may be as significant as the fact. This could be the “reason” for a stiff stock market correction.
Inside the Stock Market
The stock market is maybe half or two thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. The cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index, but for the first time in nine years is no longer “undervalued.” Shorter-term, an intermediate term correction is expected almost any time.
View from the North Country
An Analysis of Recent Social Security “Reform” – An act of fiscal responsibility this was not. Revenues were increased, but benefits were also significantly increased as shown in this fairly detailed review. Wilson Foods and Dick the Butcher – The legal eagles at Wilson Foods are using Federal bankruptcy laws to break a contract and, in the process, carving out a new low in union-management relations.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is also in the midst of secular and cyclical bull moves and the six-month consolidation may be over. If T-Bonds clearly exceed November 1982 peaks, assume the cyclical bull market is back on track with a cyclical target zone of 8.5% yields...lower on a secular basis.
Comparing the Bulls
All bull markets since 1896 are examined and compared with the current specimen in terms of cumulative month by month gains. In terms of dynamics, this is an exceptional market, but hardly unprecedented. Also, all the long sustained uninterrupted uptrends of the past (like those in the 1950’s) are examined. Is this another one of those? We don’t think so. The current specimen has gone too far too fast.
False Inflation Fears?
Others are also beginning to think 1983 inflation could surprise on the upside. From the market’s standpoint, the fear may be as significant as the fact. This could be the “reason” for a stiff stock market correction.
Inside the Stock Market
The stock market is maybe half or two thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. The cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index, but for the first time in nine years is no longer “undervalued.” Shorter-term, an intermediate term correction is expected almost any time.
View from the North Country
An Analysis of Recent Social Security “Reform” – An act of fiscal responsibility this was not. Revenues were increased, but benefits were also significantly increased as shown in this fairly detailed review. Wilson Foods and Dick the Butcher – The legal eagles at Wilson Foods are using Federal bankruptcy laws to break a contract and, in the process, carving out a new low in union-management relations.
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Perception for the Professional
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