Green Book December 2015
Login
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Not a Subscriber?
If you are interested in subscribing to The Leuthold Group, contact us online or give us a call at 612-332-1567.
Contact Us
Featured Articles
Tracking The Stock Market Top
While the sequence of index peaks traced out YTD is not exactly a textbook one, the market’s internal diffusion is comparable to that seen at many major tops, including 2000 and 2007.
Stick With What’s Working (Until It’s Not)
The year has been especially tough on managers who might have shared our cyclical worries over the stock market, but who’ve elected to stay fully invested via seemingly lower risk value approaches.
Impact Of The First Hike - This Time Might Really Be Different
At this point, the worst outcome for the risk markets would be no hike in December.
Quantitative Factor Performance: What Is Working?
For the third consecutive year (thus far), quantitative factors worked best within the Materials sector. Energy also saw success as the decline in oil hurt the same stocks as in 2014. Factors were least effective in Health Care and Telecom.
Construction & Engineering: “Unloved” Opportunity?
After nearly six years, the Industrials sector has reclaimed a top three spot among the GS Score’s Broad Sector Composite rankings—six of the sector’s 18 groups rank Attractive and two are in High Neutral. Construction & Engineering, an Industrials sector group, offers diversity in several ways—from the nature of its underlying businesses, and through areas of strength supporting the GS Score factor categories.
Update On Electronic Payment Thematic Group
When we introduced this thematic equity group in September 2012, we projected that it was poised to deliver above average returns. These companies have enjoyed many advantages atypical of most other industries, and performance-wise, this group did not disappoint. A large subset of the theme, Data Processing & Outsourced Services, is rated Attractive by our GS Scores, and has been a portfolio holding for 50 months.
Earnings Momentum
The second month of Q3 2015 earnings reports registered an Up/Down Ratio of 1.11. On its own, the month of November was particularly weak with a stand-alone Up/Down Ratio of 0.97.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Despite Large Cap Growth lagging in November, it has been a much better year for Growth stocks. All three Value segments remain in negative territory YTD.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The Pause That “Depresses”?
- Tracking The Stock Market Top
- New Month, Old Worries...
- Stick With What’s Working (Until It’s Not)
- The NYSE: A Timely Insider Sale
- Tech In The Pole Position
- Estimating The Downside
- BUY Signals In A Topping Market?
- TIME: The Hidden Market Risk?
- Another Cycle Snafu
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Impact Of The First Hike - This Time Might Really Be Different
- Risk Aversion Index - Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Construction & Engineering: “Unloved” Opportunity?
- Update On Electronic Payment Thematic Group
- Highlighted Attractive Groups
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
- Domestic & Global Long-Only Portfolios
- 100% Short Portfolio: AdvantHedge
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Tracking The Stock Market Top
While the sequence of index peaks traced out YTD is not exactly a textbook one, the market’s internal diffusion is comparable to that seen at many major tops, including 2000 and 2007.
Stick With What’s Working (Until It’s Not)
The year has been especially tough on managers who might have shared our cyclical worries over the stock market, but who’ve elected to stay fully invested via seemingly lower risk value approaches.
Impact Of The First Hike - This Time Might Really Be Different
At this point, the worst outcome for the risk markets would be no hike in December.
Quantitative Factor Performance: What Is Working?
For the third consecutive year (thus far), quantitative factors worked best within the Materials sector. Energy also saw success as the decline in oil hurt the same stocks as in 2014. Factors were least effective in Health Care and Telecom.
Construction & Engineering: “Unloved” Opportunity?
After nearly six years, the Industrials sector has reclaimed a top three spot among the GS Score’s Broad Sector Composite rankings—six of the sector’s 18 groups rank Attractive and two are in High Neutral. Construction & Engineering, an Industrials sector group, offers diversity in several ways—from the nature of its underlying businesses, and through areas of strength supporting the GS Score factor categories.
Update On Electronic Payment Thematic Group
When we introduced this thematic equity group in September 2012, we projected that it was poised to deliver above average returns. These companies have enjoyed many advantages atypical of most other industries, and performance-wise, this group did not disappoint. A large subset of the theme, Data Processing & Outsourced Services, is rated Attractive by our GS Scores, and has been a portfolio holding for 50 months.
Earnings Momentum
The second month of Q3 2015 earnings reports registered an Up/Down Ratio of 1.11. On its own, the month of November was particularly weak with a stand-alone Up/Down Ratio of 0.97.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Despite Large Cap Growth lagging in November, it has been a much better year for Growth stocks. All three Value segments remain in negative territory YTD.
Stock Market
- The Pause That “Depresses”?
- Tracking The Stock Market Top
- New Month, Old Worries...
- Stick With What’s Working (Until It’s Not)
- The NYSE: A Timely Insider Sale
- Tech In The Pole Position
- Estimating The Downside
- BUY Signals In A Topping Market?
- TIME: The Hidden Market Risk?
- Another Cycle Snafu
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Impact Of The First Hike - This Time Might Really Be Different
- Risk Aversion Index - Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Construction & Engineering: “Unloved” Opportunity?
- Update On Electronic Payment Thematic Group
- Highlighted Attractive Groups
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
- Domestic & Global Long-Only Portfolios
- 100% Short Portfolio: AdvantHedge
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
